New middle-income class growth may be stymied by pollution, income disparity
The global economy is expected to gain new momentum as a 'global middle-income class' is forecast to triple by 2030, according to a report by the International Bank of Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) on December 13.
The number of members of the global middle-income class, which has an actual purchasing power of US$4,000 to $17,000 a year, is predicted to rise to 1.2 billion people, or 15 percent of the world population from the current 400 million, the report said. This demographic is expected to accelerate the expansion of the goods and services sector worldwide.
The IBRD described the wave of globalization as a combination of the power of emerging economies such as China and India, increased productivity in global production systems, and an acceleration of technology expansion.
As globalization accelerates, the size of the global economy is expected to rise to $72 trillion from the current $35 trillion by 2030. The IBRD expected the number of impoverished people, defined as those living on less than $1 a day, to fall to 550 million from the current 1.1 billion.
However, the widening gap between haves and have-nots, labor disputes, and environmental pollution were cited as the main challenges to the growth of the global economy. In particular, the IBRD warned that greenhouse gas emissions will rise by 50 percent in 2030. The bank also warned that with the global economy consolidating, more than two-thirds of emerging economies are likely to see an increased polarization of income. Meanwhile, emerging economies are expected to post an average 7 percent economic growth this year. Between 2007 and 2008, they are predicted to grow by more than 6 percent, compared with an expected 2.6-percent growth of already "emerged" economies. Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]
