Apparent sea change in N.K. policy called "nothing new" by Blue House
In light of his comments to a gathering of Koreans in Ulan Bator, Mongolia, President Roh Moo-hyun now appears to want a summit with Pyongyang, in order to help resolve the North Korean nuclear issue. Previously, the assumption made at the Blue House was that, with the nuclear issue still in the foreground, the North would not want to hold such a summit. A high-ranking Blue House official claims that the president has not said anything new on the subject. However, President Roh has previously said close to nothing about the issue of another summit. He did not even mention it during his New Year's address on January 18 or his first press conference of the year on January 25. During his 2005 New Year's address, however, he did say that the "more you talk about buying something" the higher the price is set, and that the excitement surrounding the possibility of a summit would be detrimental to negotiations about holding one in the first place. His comments in Mongolia, therefore, mean that it is "time to bargain," and what he said is more significant than merely a customary expression of interest. To begin with, there is the government's position on the current situation. On May 3, Unification Minister Lee Jong-seok told the national press club that a "serious point in time has arrived" in which "we need to decide where we are going to take the Korean peninsula in the future." The underlying perception is that that it is time for the leaders of the North and South to meet and finally work things out. Mr. Lee also said that progress should be made on the nuclear issue through intra-Korean relations, and that it is time to develop the relationship via a comprehensive, long-term strategy.For many political observers, there is a sense of prior coordination--an off-the-record, mutual understanding between the North and South in the works. The president’s comments in Mongolia were meant in part to give greater recognition to former president Kim Dae-jung's upcoming visit to Pyongyang and to encourage the North to make the right decision on the nuclear issue, but part of what he said was meant to both try to read what the North is thinking and to give it the message it wants to hear. Mr. Kim's visit next month has been talked about with the North since the start of the year, and formal discussions began at the ministerial talks in late April. Since ministerial talks last year and again at those held in April, the North, for its part, has demanded resolution of what it calls "the fundamental issues" in the "big three" areas of politics, military affairs, and economics. Roh's comments can largely be seen as a statement of position on these "fundamental issues." He has put forth a clear set of principles on eradicating mutual distrust and discussed his opposition to unification through "absorbtion." This can be seen as a reaffirmation of his basic principles ahead of a summit. In March 2000, then-president Kim issued what would come to be known as his "Berlin Declaration," in which he promised massive economic assistance, and the summit with North Korea's leader Kim Jong-il was then held three months later. Roh is emphasizing "unconditional" aid in much the same manner. The May 16 date of the planning meeting for Mr. Kim's visit to Pyongyang is in fact the same day in 2005 that vice ministers from both sides met in Kaesong and agreed on a visit by a South Korean governmental delegation that took place on June 15, 2005. During that visit, then-unification minister Chung Dong-young was able to meet with Kim Jong-il, leading to the resumption of the six-party talks, the full restoration of intra-Korean relations, and the expansion of cooperation. The current situation, at least preliminarily, mirrors that of last year. But there is an imbalance between the possibility of a restoration of relations between North and South on the one hand, and the turn for the worse that is taking place in the area of U.S.-North Korean relations on the other. As former U.S. ambassador to Korea Steven Bosworth once said, the U.S. thinks the South should not "open its pocketbook" to the North. It remains to be seen whether the U.S. will try to stop the South from giving aid to Pyongyang in response to any resolution of the issue of the Southern P.O.W.s or abductees still in North Korea. The North, for its part, may think it useful to hold serious negotiations with the South at a time when there is increasingly intense pressure from the U.S. and Japan. It is for these reasons that many observers predict former president Kim, for whom this trip to Pyongyang may be his last, will not return empty handed. It would not be unrealistic to expect that, at the very least, there could be some form of progress on the North's participation in the six-party process and on the P.O.W. and abductee issue.
