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The Gaza Strip is one of three pieces left of Palestine after the establishment of Israel in 1948. The Al-Hemma strip in the Northern part of Palestine, which is of a few square kilometers in area and was adjoined to Syria; the West Bank, which comprises about 5,880 sq km; and the Gaza strip, which is about 365 sq km in size. The population of Gaza is around 1.4 million, and it is described as the most densely populated area in the world. Most of its population is made up of refugees who were expelled from their homes and land by the Israelis in 1948. There are around 5 million such Palestinian refugees who have been living in camps under dire conditions since 1948. The three remaining pieces of Palestine fell under occupation in the war of 1967, in which Israel achieved a quick and stunning victory over the Arabs. Since then, the Palestinians have been resisting the occupation and demanding the restoration of their rights, including the return of the refugees’ homes and property. That is why they have been labeled as terrorists by Israel, the United States, and their allies. In the last few years, Palestinian militant groups have developed several methods in attacking the Israelis--who are armed to the teeth--among which is the so-called "martyrdom attacks" (which are described as suicide attacks by the Israelis), and the development of primitive rockets that are around 10 km in range and hardly accurate. These developments are extremely vexing for the Israelis, who consider them a threat to their own security. Regarding the Israeli security doctrine, one needs to remember that security is a prime and profound reason for the establishment of Israel. Due to the persecution the Jews experienced over the centuries in Europe, they started thinking of a homeland of their own where they could live in peace and security. They chose Palestine to be this homeland because so many of them considered it the historical land of the Jews. Although Western countries such as Britain proposed alternatives such as Uganda, the Europeans finally went along with the choice of the Zionist movement, which led to the establishment of Israel. The Jews decided to immigrate to Palestine with the hope that there would be security and peace. If it were not for these two reasons, Israel would have never been established. That is why Israel is so sensitive to any threat to its own security, no matter how minor or trivial. If security is not enforced, so many Israelis will leave the country and so many Jews from around the world will not immigrate to Israel. In other words, the Israeli security doctrine says that insecurity is equivalent to the collapse of the state. In its military and security doctrines, Israel adopts the stance of preemptive action; that is, destroy your enemies before they gain the capability to attack. Israel also always tries to ensure that any fighting takes place on "enemy territory," away from its own population centers. That is why the Israelis were deeply affected by the martyrdom attacks the Palestinians started carrying out in population centers. Many Israelis left Israel, many of them started to be cautious when in public places, and tourists decided to stay away. Although the Israelis hit the Palestinians hard using their advanced military, the Palestinians are insisting on resistance. The Palestinians insist that they have rights, and the international community should be fair in dealing with the problem. They believe that, one day, Israel will be brought to the recognition of these rights, including the establishment of a free and sovereign Palestinian state. Israel saw a major threat in the shelling of its population centers around Gaza, although it suffered very minor casualties and damage. For Israel, it is the idea that those who could develop missiles could also develop their range and accuracy. That is why it announced several times that it is going to carry out a huge military expedition so as to silence the shooting; and, meanwhile, it continued its air, sea, and land attacks against selective posts and individuals. Where is the Palestinian Authority during all of this? The Authority is absent. On one hand, it is required by accords with Israel to defend Israeli security, and to arrest those who are called Palestinian terrorists. It cannot do that simply because Hamas and Jihad Islami, the two major resistance movements, are much stronger, and because it will be labeled as a traitor by the people. Besides, Hamas won the late legislative elections and formed the government, and it is not ready to abide by the accords. While the Israelis were thinking of carrying out their threats of invading Gaza, members of Palestinian militant groups carried out a well planned attack against an Israeli military post, killing three soldiers and capturing one. The Palestinians hope to hammer out a deal for prisoner exchange (there are around 8,000 Palestinians being held as prisoners in Israel). For Israel, it is disastrous to negotiate even indirectly with those whom it labels as terrorists, and respond positively to their demands. In its security doctrine, Israel takes all precautions to prevent the fall of Israeli prisoners, dead or alive, in the hands of the enemy. This military event heated Israeli anger, and ignited an immediate mobilization of troops. It is true that the Israelis can inflict heavy damage and kill many Palestinians, but will they be able to free their captured soldier? From a tactical standpoint, it would be almost impossible, because such an operation would threaten the life of their soldier. But they might be able to do so through intelligence activity. I am sure that, behind the scenes, the Israelis are working very hard on collecting information, drawing maps, and evaluating choices. Nevertheless, any action the Israelis decide to take is extremely hazardous unless they decide to take their soldier dead rather than alive. If they do so, the Israeli government will come under severe internal criticism from the public and the mass media. Will the Palestinians back down under Israeli military pressure? The Israelis are betting on that, as the Palestinians backed down several times on different issues over the years. For instance, the Palestinian leadership has recognized Israel, although it used to describe those who recognize Israel as traitors. The Palestinians actually have major weaknesses: they do not insist on their own demands, and they are infiltrated by the Israeli security service. The Palestinians usually suffer a lot when they directly face the Israelis, and they do not stand up against certain illogical stances held by the Israelis. On the other hand, the Israelis have the capability to collect accurate information about the Palestinians due to the agents they have been recruiting and their technological advancement. However, Hamas is different to some extent from Fateh, the previous majority party. Hamas is a well-integrated organization on an ideological basis, and ready to accept the necessary sacrifices. They suffer less infiltrations, and are not ready to back down. For what end are we waiting? Concerning the Arab-Israeli conflict in general, we should not be awaiting any solution in the forseeable future. The Palestinian militant groups will continue to hold the Israeli soldier, no matter the severity of the Israeli attacks. However, concerning the present situation, I believe that the Israelis, if they reach the conclusion that they will not be able to free their soldier, will negotiate a prisoner exchange. But the whole soldier ordeal will end if the Israelis decide to attack the post where he is confined. The possibility that the Israelis will take measures that might lead to the killing of their soldier is very high. Their dignity, as they say, is more important than the life of one soldier. No matter what, Israel will continue to attack the Palestinians under all conditions. As long as there are those unwilling to concede Palestinian rights, Israel will continue its barrage. It has arrested cabinet and parliament members, but it is highly possible that it is going to gun down Hamas political leaders such as the Palestinian prime minister. The cycle of violence will continue, and it may intensify.
