[Column] Gambling fueled by a failure in logic

Kim Hoe Sung, editorial writer for the Hankyoreh

Let us assume there is a college student who is intelligent, introspective, and likes to think and read. What would be his or her major? Philosophy, or Economics?

Statistically speaking, the answer to the question would be B, as economics majors far outnumber those who study philosophy. Given that, although nearly all Philosophy majors probably fit the above description, there are bound to be more of those kind of students majoring in Economics just by sheer numbers alone. However, even knowing this, many would choose A as the answer to the question. This phenomenon is based on the so-called error of representativeness.

This kind of error, in which the emotional power of thought supercedes what raw numbers say, can take place in many different instances. For example, if a woman has three daughters and no son, people tend to believe that she is more likely to give birth to a son the next time. However, the chances are still half and half because the gender of a baby is determined independently, bearing no relation to prior occasions.

If a coin is flipped 10 times consecutively, coming up heads each time, some might think the chances would be higher the next flip would come up tails. But the 11th attempt is an isolated case, like all of the others, so the probability is still half and half; the chances for a 11th consecutive head would be only one out of 2,048 attempts.

Such logical fallacy is at the core of gambling’s success. Hitting a casino jackpot has the odds of one out of 2-4 million. The chance of winning the lottery is even slimmer, less than one out of 8 million. In other words, it would be still almost impossible to hit the jackpot or win the lottery even if one has lost thousands of times previously. Still, gamblers tend to slip into errors in reasoning, thinking that their chances will grow as they lose more money. This misconception can explain a recent incident, in which a gambler that lost a huge amount of money lost his temper and brandished a knife after finding out that a slot machine that he had been playing on had been replaced.

Ironically, the appeal in the gambling can be found in this misconception. People believe that they could win a jackpot at any moment, choosing to slog themselves down the sea of uncertainty each and every time.