[Editorial] From the North: shock and poor judgment

North Korea says it tested a nuclear device, six days from when it first said it would on October 3. During this period, the other countries to the six-party talks - South Korea, the United States, China, Japan, and Russia -called for Pyongyang to give up on its plans, as did the United Nations Security Council in a formal chairman's statement. Still, North Korea ignored all the warnings. It shut its ears to the demands of the international community and proceeded according to its own schedule. The test violates the joint statement produced at the six-party talks on September 19 of last year and the agreement on a non-nuclear Korean peninsula, as issued by North and South Korea in 1991. North Korea must bear all responsibility for this provocation.

It would appear that Pyongyang decided it would be in a better position to negotiate with the United States once it wins recognition as a nation with 'the bomb.' Seeing that the U.S. was intensifying those financial sanctions, it may have decided to go postal, as it is unrealistic to think the U.S. would recognize it for having the bomb and change its policies, and since a nuclear test means international isolation that can only hurt the North Korean economy. Greater sanctions and pressure on North Korea through the U.N. are now unavoidable. Even if one of the goals was to unify the country, choosing a nuclear test to do so shows the serious flaws in Pyongyang's judgment.

It is hard to predict what will happen in the wake of this. One immediate result will be heightened tensions on the Korean peninsula and in Northeast Asia. North Korea says it maintains nuclear weapons for defensive purposes, but neighboring nations are going to see those as a threat. Now that the declaration on a nuclear-free peninsula is collapsing, the test could, in the long run, lead to an arms race in the region, one that includes the development of nuclear weapons. What the world as a whole is most worried about is the weakening or collapse of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT). The biggest threat to the security of the global village in the 21st century is the spread of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction. This nuclear test is going to make North Korea be seen more concretely as part of that threat.

The beginning of a crisis on the Korean peninsula?

It is possible this nuclear test could lead to another crisis on the Korean peninsula. The first crisis took place in the early '90s, and began when the North refused to be inspected by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and declared it was leaving the NPT. At the time, the U.S. considered plans to bomb the North's nuclear facilities. In other words, the situation came very close to war. The second crisis came in the Fall of 2002 and originated in the North's plans over what it wanted to do with its highly enriched uranium (HEU). That time around, as well, there was talk in the U.S. about attacking nuclear facilities. There is no reason why hard-liners in the U.S. will not make similar calls now. International opinion about North Korea is at an all-time low. China has long sided with the North, but ever since Pyongyang launched a series of missiles back in July, it has assumed a neutral stance, even signing the last two U.N. documents against the North's activities.

A larger crisis is our worst nightmare. That being the case, our government's greatest priority should be on stable management of the situation. For starters, it needs to make sure the situation does not deteriorate any further as the result of any sudden action. Showing the North that the international community is united in its wisdom would be better than hasty reactions by individual states. The government needs to cooperate with other nations in order to make sure there are not again irresponsible calls for an attack coming from within the U.S. or Japan.

Difficult times call for cool-headed thinking

Diplomacy should not be abandoned just because of a difficult situation. The North Korean nuclear issue will, in the end, have to be resolved through peaceful and diplomatic means. Even if the North's poor judgment has caused a bad situation, it is clear that the North, too, does not want military confrontation. All of its provocations over the past year have been aimed at U.S.'s financial sanctions against it. Even its demand for direct dialogue with the U.S. is largely about trying to hear America say it will not try to topple its government. Overcoming the current situation, in which there is continued North Korean provocations and malicious U.S. neglect, will require the government to work hard to have the U.S. consider a profound change in its approach and be willing to talk directly with North Korea. The six-party process has not yet disappeared. The "common and comprehensive approach" agreed upon when Roh Moo-hyun and George W. Bush met in Washington last month is still valid.

Calls for a complete reconsideration of relations with North Korea are premature. Granted, now that Pyongyang has gone nuclear, it would be hard to continue the relationship as it had been before. However, a rapid deterioration in inter-Korean relations would be as dangerous as calls for unconditional cooperation between the North and South. Economic relations are essential for reducing the danger of war on the peninsula and restoring the things we share as Koreans and, by doing so, encouraging the North to change. Inter-Korean relations are easy to break off but require a lot of work to rebuild.

This nuclear test is the climax of an issue that has been going on for around 10 years now. What that means is that the Korean peninsula could look very different depending on how we react to this. Predicting North Korean behavior is never easy, and the interests of the countries involved in the issue are intertwined and complicated, so the government needs to be ready for a diverse range of scenarios while at the same time avoiding taking quick-tempered action. The politicians need to refrain from politicizing this. The situation is such that we need to be more cool-headed and realistic than ever before.