[Editorial] Pompeo unlikely to represent dramatic change for US approach toward North Korea

CIA Director Mike Pompeo, who is President Donald Trump’s choice to head the State Department following the departure of Rex Tillerson

US President Donald Trump replaced Rex Tillerson as Secretary of State on Mar. 13, nominating Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) director Mike Pompeo in his stead. Coming ahead of a planned North Korea-US summit, the replacement signals that Trump is reorganizing his negotiation team to place a trusted associate at the helm.

Predictions of Tillerson’s replacement were rife after repeated signs of his disagreement with Trump on numerous issues since last July. The two butted heads in particular over how to address North Korea issues. It was a case of hardline vs. moderate, with Trump demanding “maximum pressure” and Tillerson calling for “unconditional dialogue.” Tillerson also suggested a moderate approach on the Iran nuclear agreement and Paris climate accord, calling for the US to honor the existing frameworks, while Trump advocated a unilateral, hardline approach. With the “brake” Tillerson represented gone, US foreign relations could end up careering off in an even more obstinate and unilateral direction. It’s something the South Korean government will need to watch closely and prepare for.

Purely in terms of Seoul’s major area of interest – relations between Pyongyang and Washington – the Secretary of State’s replacement does not appear likely to usher in any immediate changes. While Pompeo is a hardliner, he is also a trusted associate of Trump’s who performed a behind-the-scenes role in the summit decision after Tillerson fell out of favor with the President. As one of his reasons for picking Pompeo, Trump said the two were “always on the same wavelength” and “have a very similar thought process.”

In addition to working better with Trump, Pompeo is also said to be more aware of the Korean Peninsula situation than Tillerson. Unlike Tillerson, Pompeo supports Trump’s vision of a “big deal” with Pyongyang. Trump may have decided that it would better to have a loyalist like Pompeo front and center to maximize bargaining power ahead of the summit. The Secretary of State’s replacement could be viewed not as a spontaneous decision, but as part of an effort to execute Trump’s strategy and establish a new state of affairs.

In light of all this, the presence of a hardliner like Pompeo is not bad news for South Korea in its hopes for successful North Korea-US talks. If that May summit does go awry, however, the Trump-Pompeo pairing could adopt an even harder line in North Korea policy that stands to rapidly worsen the situation. Seoul needs to watch everything closely and leave no room for confusion in its coordination with Washington. For President Moon Jae-in’s vision of peace on the Korean Peninsula to gain traction, it needs to be grounded in communication and trust with the US.

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