Posted on : May.21,2018 17:55 KST Modified on : May.21,2018 18:19 KST

South Korean President Moon Jae-in and US President Donald Trump

On May 21, South Korean President Moon Jae-in left for the US to hold a summit with US President Donald Trump. During that summit, which is scheduled for May 22, President Moon faces the grave responsibility of mediating the conflict between North Korea and the US that has broken out just over 20 days before their historic summit.

The itinerary of the summit includes a one-on-one meeting between the two leaders without anyone else present, demonstrating the need for candid discussion aimed at clearing away the negative factors that have come up. The fact that President Moon traded views on the phone with Trump prior to his departure also demonstrates the immensity of the challenge they face at the summit.

Considering that the source of the tension between North Korea and the US is the remarks about the Libya model by White House National Security Advisor John Bolton, the key item on the agenda of this summit should be finding a way to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula that North Korea can feel secure about accepting.

Although Trump promised to guarantee the security of the North Korean regime while writing off the Libya model after North Korean First Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Kim Kye-gwan released a statement bashing Bolton, the specific method remains wreathed in fog. That is what makes it difficult to ease North Korea’s anxiety.

The South Korea-US summit must be focused on offering an even clearer method of ensuring the regime’s security, one that can change North Korea’s attitude. In regard to this, President Moon needs to persuade Trump that a stable North Korean regime after denuclearization will ultimately be in the interests of the US, too, by providing opportunities for American investment in the North.

The suspicion that Trump has expressed about North Korea-China relations, reflected in his remark that Kim’s attitude changed after his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, represents another challenge for President Moon. An apparent confrontation between North Korea and China on one side and South Korea and the US on the other is not desirable for South Korea as it attempts to fundamentally change Korean Peninsula affairs with the help of the US and China. President Moon needs to convince Trump that China can play a positive role in North Korea’s denuclearization, reform and opening.

In the end, South and North Korea’s strained relations can also be attributed to the North Korea-US conflict. The North’s reference to the issue of repatriating defectors – not to mention its use of the South Korea-US joint air force drills as an excuse to delay the inter-Korean high-level meeting – can be regarded as a request for South Korea to take advantage of its influence over the US in regard to the North Korea-US conflict.

The North’s rejection of the list of South Korean reporters to the nuclear test site at Punggye Village is also part of that pressure. At the same time, there are also clear indications that North Korea is moving forward with preparations for its summit with the US. There are signs that the North continues to work on shutting down the Punggye Village, which is scheduled for May 23 and 25, and there are rumors that a delegation from the North Korean Foreign Ministry was dispatched to Singapore ahead of the summit.

In light of these factors, we can infer that North Korea is focusing on getting a security guarantee for the regime in exchange for denuclearization as it steadily prepares for the Kim-Trump summit. In the end, the critical issue may well be narrowing the differences between North Korea and the US about how that guarantee can be provided.

During his summit with Trump, President Moon needs to convey the intensity of the insecurity felt by North Korea and work with Trump to devise a more definite solution that can clear up that insecurity. If the fundamental problem of guaranteeing the security of the North Korean regime is resolved, the temporary strain in inter-Korean questions can be relaxed as well.

Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]

Caption: South Korean President Moon Jae-in and US President Donald Trump

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