[Correspondent’s column] Chinese-style and American-style sunshine policies resemble each other

US President Donald Trump (right) greets North Korean leader Kim Jong-un at the Capella hotel on Singapore’s Sentosa island before the first-ever North Korea-US summit on June 12. (provided by The Straits Times/AFP/Yonhap News)

US attempts to coax North Korea comparable to Xi Jinping drawing in Park Geun-hye

Warming relations between North Korea and the US under Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump overlap curiously with warming relations between South Korea and China under Park Geun-hye and Xi Jinping. Just as China did its best to coax South Korea to take its side, the US also appears to be pulling North Korea in its direction. In my column in Mar. 2017, I referred to China’s attempts as “the Chinese-style sunshine policy,” so I will be referring to the American attempts as the “American-style sunshine policy.”

The Chinese-style and American-style sunshine policies resemble each other in many respects. China was attracting South Korea while retaining North Korea as its staunch ally, and the US is reaching out to North Korea while sustaining its ironclad alliance with the South. For these reasons – and even though these policies are motivated by geopolitical interests – some Chinese remained suspicious during that process, just as some Americans remain on their guard today.

Former South Korean President Park Geun-hye’s attendance alongside Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin at China’s Victory Day Parade in Sept. 2015 was deeply shocking and concerning for some in South Korea and the US. In the same way, the North Korea-US summit last month was probably disconcerting for some in North Korea and China. Perhaps for that very reason, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un visited Beijing one week after his summit with Trump, much as Park went to the US to reassure Americans and South Korean conservatives a month after attending the Victory Day Parade.

Another similarity is that China and the US’s attempts to change the situation have fomented anxiety among their staunch allies. Currently, a certain segment of South Koreans is afraid that US troops might be withdrawn from the country. In a similar way, the fact that the newly inaugurated Xi visited Seoul before Pyongyang sent shockwaves through North Korea.

But the methods used by the US and China are different. China used the direct method of expanding exchange with South Korea in the areas of the economy and culture. Coinciding with China’s economic growth, this resulted in South Korea becoming more dependent on China. Rather than directly supporting North Korea and increasing exchange with it, the US seems likely to use diplomatic and military means to untie the ropes binding the North’s hands and feet. For the North, normalizing foreign relations could be more effective than dependence on the US.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and first lady Ri Sol-u pose for a commemorative photograph with Chinese President Xi Jinping and first lady Peng Liyuan during the welcome ceremony for Kim’s visit at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on June 19. The image is a snapshot taken from a China Central Television (CCTV) broadcast. (AP/Yonhap news)

Failure of Chinese model

As everyone knows, the Chinese-style sunshine policy ended in failure. North Korea ultimately sabotaged this policy with its repeated nuclear and missile tests. The US brought more pressure to bear, which limited South Korea’s options. The Park administration shifted to a pro-American stance, reaching an agreement with Japan on the comfort women and allowing the US to deploy its THAAD missile defense system. China dropped the hand it had extended to South Korea. That backlash had a comparable effect on bilateral relations, which suffered nearly irreparable damage.

At least for the moment, there is a possibility of the American-style sunshine policy ending differently from the Chinese version.

Why the American model could work

First of all, South Korea is no saboteur. Considering that the South Korean government under President Moon Jae-in has orchestrated the current situation on the Korean Peninsula, it would never hobble regional affairs by ratcheting up tensions as North Korea did a few years ago. Improving relations between North Korea and the US is also not unwelcome to the South. There is a difference between North Korea, which was worried that warming relations between South Korea and China would have left it isolated, and South Korea, which is the world’s 12th largest economy.

China could try to “mark its territory” in North Korea just as the US did with the THAAD deployment. But considering that China withdrew all its troops from the Korean Peninsula five years after the Korean War ended in an armistice, it is unlikely to deploy weapons in the North at this point. As can be seen from the projects related to China’s One Belt, One Road, the Chinese way is to maintain and expand its influence through expanding economic cooperation. The people-to-people exchange that has apparently been increasing between North Korea and China in recent months likely has this ultimate political aim of “marking territory.” While it is unfortunate that South Korea and China are forced to compete for North Korea, this seems to be better than the vortex that formed between the US and China during the THAAD affair.

Kim Oi-hyun, Beijing correspondent

Once again, the most important factor is the US. It is up to the US to determine when North Korea has denuclearized, which everyone regards as the key to this situation. But given the numerous issues weighing on the US and China’s fractious relationship – including friction over trade, the South China Sea and Taiwan – the US is unlikely to end contact with North Korea that has only just begun. This is a forecast that I hope proves true.

By Kim Oi-hyun, Beijing correspondent

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