Posted on : Sep.11,2019 17:01 KST
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North Korean First Vice Minister Choe Son-hui. (Hankyoreh archives)
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US President Donald Trump sent an immediate favorable response to North Korean First Vice Minister Choe Son-hui’s statement on Sept. 9 that North Korea was willing to “sit with the U.S. side for comprehensive discussions [. . .] in late September.” This increases the likelihood that the working-level negotiations on denuclearization agreed upon by the North Korean and US leaders in their Panmunjom meeting on June 30 will be taking place within the month. Many are now watching to see if a breakthrough can be achieved with the impasse in the two sides’ negotiations.
Choe’s proposal could be seen as a response to calls for dialogue from senior figures in the US State Department. Three days earlier, Special Representative for North Korean Policy Stephen Biegun made it clear that Trump aimed to get the negotiations started again quickly, promising that the US President was “fully committed to making significant progress towards these goals in the year ahead.” He also raised the possibility of the role and scale of US Forces Korea being strategically reconsidered once North Korean denuclearization has been achieved. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo made statements actively acknowledging the right to self-defense, which is an area of interest for Pyongyang. Those statements appear to have gone some way in allaying the North’s apprehensions.
At the same time, North Korea also went ahead with a show of force with the test launch of two projectiles shortly after Choe’s statement was published. In addition to once again pressuring Washington to change its change, this duality in the North’s behavior could be seen as signaling that the matter of relieving security concerns is going to be a key topic during the working-level talks. It also hinted that the military competition between South and North could continue even while negotiations take place. The South Korean government should respond firmly to the North’s shows of force, but it also needs to work with Pyongyang to find ways of relaxing military tensions.
If the working-level negotiations do come to pass, the key question is likely to be how to bridge the differences in view that led to the collapse of their Hanoi summit. The “new calculation method” mentioned by Choe in particular is likely to be a key factor in the talks’ success of failure. Pyongyang’s actions to date suggest that Choe’s message about how the “DPRK-US dealings may come to an end” if the US “fingers again the [same] worn-out scenario” was not simply a bluff.
Neither North Korea nor the US has much time. Pyongyang desperately needs relief from the sanctions that have been choking the popular economy; Trump needs concrete results from his denuclearization talks as he looks ahead to re-election. For a third bilateral summit to happen within the year, the two sides will need to find common ground in their denuclearization negotiations. Both of them will need a firm commitment to seeing things through to the end this time. With South Korean Special Representative for Korean Peninsula Peace and Security Affairs Lee Do-hoon reportedly weighing a visit to Washington next week, the South Korean government needs to provide its full support to make certain these North Korea-US negotiations are fruitful.
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