By Sattar Kassem
The moment that Iran will emerge as a nuclear power has been expected to come ever since the revolution against the king (Shah) emerged victorious. The Mullas (the religious people) emerged with a mentality that highly regards self-dependence, and considers it as part of the Islamic teachings. A good Muslim doesn't put his fate in the hands of others even if they are friends, and should always be vigilant and capable of defending him/herself. A Muslim should always be strong, not for the purpose of attacking others, but for deterring aggressors.
They believe that the Arabs and the Muslims have been humiliated over the years by the Western countries and Israel, and their wealth has been robbed and weakened by their own governments. Their belief is that most Arab and Muslim governments are puppets of the U.S., and have dumped their own people into backwardness and frequent defeats. The U.S. has been arming Israel and extending every possible political, diplomatic and economic support; Israel has been ruthless in preventing the Palestinian refugees from returning to their homes and property. they believe.
Aside from their Islamic and political thought, the Iranians are proud of themselves. Although the Persian Empire was toppled by the Muslims, they still study its history with great admiration. This doesn't mean that the Mullas are Persian nationalists, but they don't see themselves disconnected from the great historical achievements of their civilization.
From the very beginning, the U.S. and the Arab regimes looked at the Iranian revolution with suspicion, particularly due to the political discourse it adopted. It started talking about the dignity of the Muslims and the liberation of Palestine. The Arab regimes feared that the Iranian fever might spread to their own countries, while Israel sensed the threat that might emerge and the U.S. cared so much about sources of energy. That is why the three parties collaborated and waged a war against Iran with the leadership of Saddam Hussein. The Arab regimes and the Western countries financed and equipped the Iraqi president, who turned to be an enemy after the war.
Iran got the message; that is, if it doesn't develop its own military arsenal, it will remain vulnerable. It suffered so much from the siege imposed by the U.S. and the European countries, and it decided to take the necessary steps toward developing its own military equipment. It could manufacture cannons, artilleries, sub-machine guns, helicopters, tanks, short- and medium-range missiles, laser-guided bombs, and so on. Some of this equipment was tested in southern Lebanon by Hizballah against Israel and proved effective.
For so many years, Iran skillfully brought the world's attention to its efforts to build a nuclear facility for electrical purposes on the gulf in cooperation with Russia. The U.S., Israel and other countries concentrated their attention on this project and tried hard to make Russia back out of the deal. However, the real Iranian efforts were being made in their own backyard, under strict secrecy. Western intelligence failed to detect the level of progress Iran had achieved in the field of nuclear research, although doubts and suspicions have always come to the fore.
Iran has been quick in gaining nuclear knowledge and know-how. It became evident that Abdul Kadeer Khan, the father of Pakistan's nuclear bomb, provided Iran with precious knowledge, and it is thought that Iran could possibly have attracted some Russian scientists after the fall of the Soviet Union and could have established a certain kind of cooperation with North Korea. Apparently, the Iranians have developed something to depend on in any kind of confrontation with the West. Their discourse is challenging and determined, and they haven't been shaken by the American and Israeli threats.
Iran has several factors in its favor in any military confrontation that might erupt:
Iran is a vast country of around 1,600,000 square kilometers, and a population of 70 million. Strategically, this requires the mobilization of so much air and missile power. Israel finds this mobilization very difficult to attain without the direct U.S. intervention.
It is hard for both the U.S. and Israel to distinguish between the real nuclear sites and the decoys. It is thought that Iran has dug hundreds of sites into mountainsides, with a level of skill that would make it hard for satellites to discern.
In retaliation, Iran can hit oil fields and refineries in Saudia Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait. The already high oil prices might jump up to $200 a barrel. The U.S. will be the country to blame.
Iran could make Iraq a harder place for the Americans, who are already facing a fierce resistance. It has a great deal of influence on the Iraqi Shiites, who haven't been participating in the resistance. It can put the American army in Iraq under tremendous pressure.
The Arab regimes aren't capable of waging a war against Iran on behalf of the U.S. Saddam Hussein isn't there any more, the Iraqi army is weak, the Arab regimes are bankrupt, and Iran is much stronger than before.
Iran is confident that the utmost that Israel and the U.S. could do is to use the air force or long-range cruise missiles. Ground invasion isn't thought of due to the vastness of the country, and because of the limited capability of the U.S. to wage a new war.
Iran is threatening to hit Israel if it comes under attack. It has the missile power to do that.
It is estimated that Iran will suffer a great deal of destruction if the U.S. wages a military attack, but so many strategic experts believe that that is not going to cripple Iranian military capability. Iran has been very cautious and clever, and has taken the necessary steps to be able to absorb the firepower of the U.S.
Washington has made threats to Tehran, but, in the meantime, has been resorting to the U.N. Russia and China are unwilling to go along with the U.S. in adopting economic and military sanctions against Iran. Will France and Britain join the U.S. in its efforts to dismantle Iran? Or will the U.S. go ahead with a new military adventure? Things don't seem easy or comfortable in this regard, as the U.S. army is facing so much trouble in Iraq and Afghanistan.
I think that Iran will ultimately emerge as a nuclear power, and the U.S. has to accept this reality. But the hard time will be Israel's share. For the first time since its establishment as a state, Israel feels that its existence is seriously endangered.
Sattar Kassem is a professor of political science at Al Najah university, Palestine.
