Posted on : Jul.7,2006 12:50 KST

Experts say North’s technology should not be underestimated

U.S. President George W. Bush and U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, as well as South Korean and Japanese authorities, have been calling the North Korean Taepodong-2 missile a "failure" after it crashed only 42 seconds after being fired.

However, some missile experts at home and abroad suggested that North Korean technology cannot be underestimated so easily.

So far, grounds for deeming the Taepodong-2’s flight a failure have been based on the brevity of its flight.


Lee Seong-kyu, chief of intelligence at the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in a parliamentary defense council meeting that the Taepodong-2 missile cruised normally for the 42 seconds before its breakdown, reaching a distance of about 390 km before experiencing technical trouble. Lee told reporters that the missile would fly and be able to enter into orbit at a speed of 7 km per second if operated normally. But, it failed to enter into orbit, Lee said. The Taepodong-2 missile was believed to have crashed into the sea 499 km from the North’s launch site of Musudan, seven minutes after liftoff.

South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) said in a closed-door parliamentary meeting that the Taepodong-2 failed due to a mechanical problem in its rocket engine. Reasons for this might have been a vibration impact from insufficient combustion in the engine or an internal crack within the engine’s inner chamber. According to the analysis by the NIS, the Taepodong-2 might have exploded after engine vibrations led to a fuel leakage.

Joseph Cirincione, an American weapons expert with the Center for American Progress, said in an interview with CNN that North Korea’s missile threat was exaggerated by Pyongyang and supporters of the U.S. missile defense (MD) system.

However, some experts warn that this shouldn’t be viewed as a failure.

The Taepodong-2 requires two minutes of burn time before it begins its second-stage boost. But the Taepodong-2 burned only 42 seconds before crashing, with the first- and second-stage rockets failing to split off as intended. Because of this short flight, Japanese media suggested the purpose of the test was an experiment to look at the capability of the missile’s first-stage rocket. Japanese media, citing an official at Japan’s defense ministry, reported North Korea may have intentionally failed to fire the second-stage rocket by injecting water instead of fuel.

Some experts maintain that North Korea’s missile technology should not be viewed as less superior. Shin Seong-taek, a researcher at the U.S.-based Monterey Institute of International Studies, said the Taepodong-1 missile, fired eight years ago, was successful in splitting into first-stage and second-stage rockets, even though it failed to put a satellite into orbit.

“We should not view this as a limit to their technology,” Shin said.



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