Despite strong words, no sign of prep for nuclear test

A news team broadcasts in front of the border fence between North and South Korea.

North’s move aimed at garnering U.S. response: experts

Despite the North’s recent announcement that it would go ahead with a nuclear test, there are no signs that North Korea is preparing for one. Indeed, experts believe a test is not imminent, pointing to the North’s announcement as totally targeted at the U.S., meaning that any follow-up measures from Pyongyang will be based on the response from Washington.

"We have stepped up surveillance on the North but have not spotted any strange activities," said a Defense Ministry official.

The North announced its plans for a nuclear test repeatedly on October 3 and 4 through its official news agency in an apparent bid to consolidate an inside support base by raising tensions.

A source familiar with the North’s conditions said that the communist country’s brinkmanship is meted out on a step-by-step basis. For example, during the second North Korean nuclear crisis which began in October 2002, the North first removed surveillance cameras from its reactor laboratories, then expelled inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), finally withdrawing from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. The strategic cycle this time started on June 1 when it issued a statement arguing that it has no choice but to resort to more drastic measures, the source said.

Based on this assumption, the North’s brinkmanship will further intensify in the near future. A North Korean expert said on condition of anonymity that the strategy will come in three to four stages this time.

The North could take measures to prepare a nuclear test in a disclosed site, experts say, like it did before its missile test launches on July 5.

If precedents in other countries possessing nuclear weapons are any guide, it is unlikely that the North would conduct a test in an unknown place, as it would still emit radiation detectable by international intelligence bodies.

The North will step up its efforts for a nuclear test, experts say, should the U.S. intensify its pressure on the communist country. But things could get worse if Pyongyang is in fact pursuing a one-one-one meeting with Washington as a country with de facto nuclear capabilities, as this goal would most likely accelerate the North toward conducting a test.