Tensions remain high; observers still say test likely
Since it announced a plan on October 3 to conduct a nuclear test, North Korea has not conducted any follow-up action, though many have been busy predicting when the communist country would go ahead with its declared move. Last Thursday was Chuseok, one of the nation’s biggest holidays, and also the 57th anniversary of the North’s establishing diplomatic ties with China. Sunday marked the ninth anniversary of Kim Jong-il becoming the head of the Labor Party. The next day was the 61th anniversary of the North’s establishment of its ruling political party. Observers had predicted that any of these days could have been the ’right timing’ for Pyongyang to take action on its announcement. But little out of the ordinary has been detected. Instead, the North has tried to consolidate its support base internally, with its state-run radio and newspapers issuing editorials and commentaries glorifying its "military first" policy. No direct finger-pointing against the U.S. has been made, either. Media reports said the North had not made diplomatic efforts to dissuade the U.N from adopting a statement on October 6 warning the country not to carry out its first-ever nuclear test. Sources close to the U.N. also said that the North has not even contacted China, one of its closet allies, in relation to the U.N.’s action.Adding to the concerns over a possible nuclear test, North Korean leader Kim Jong-il reportedly said at a meeting with foreign envoys in July, "We should solve our problems on our own, in that the whole world is our enemy." A Japanese newspaper, citing Seoul sources, said the North could seek a nuclear test, even given the rist of its further isolation from the international community. A Chinese expert on North Korea echoed these concerns, saying the communist country will very likely conduct a nuclear test if the U.S. does not lift sanctions on the reclusive country, according to the Associated Press. The recent deaths of some of North Korea’s high-ranking officials come at a very sensitive time for the reclusive state. No independent confirmation was available, but reports said that Chang Song-taek, a brother-in-law of Kim Jong-il and a ranking party official, died in a car accident late last month. In addition, high-level military officer Paek Hak-rim died of cerebral hemorrhage, the North’s Korean Central News Agency said. Meanwhile, five North Korean soldiers crossed the military demarcation line near a river in Gangwon Province on Saturday. They retreated following warning shots fired by South Korean soldiers, according to Seoul’s military authorities. "It seems that the North intentionally has been raising the level of tension since the announcement last week of a [possible] nuclear test," a military official said on condition of anonymity. In response, Seoul’s Joint Chiefs of Staff ordered the entire South Korean military to step up their readiness. They have also launched an around-the-clock task force to monitor activity in the North.
