International community looks to Beijing to negotiate with Pyongyang
Pyongyang’s October 3 declaration that a nuclear test is imminent has become a touchstone for China’s diplomatic ability, as China has found it cannot avoid mounting pressure from the international community to prove its ability to "influence" North Korea. Beijing signed a U.N. Security Council (UNSC) statement against the North on October 6, making this the second time in several months that China has supported U.N. action stemming from the North’s activities. The first was in mid-July after North Korea test launched seven missiles on July 5. At that time, China first tried to persuade North Korea, then turning to the United States. This time, China followed the opposite order, consulting first with the U.S., but now Beijing will likely persuade both nations simultaneously in order to prevent an extreme situation. Shortly after Pyongyang declared it would conduct a nuclear test, China urged the communist nation to exercise restraint. In this context, China then agreed to sign the UNSC joint statement. China’s tightly controlled state media has been reporting steadily about the situation, which is not always the case, prompting some experts to attribute this to China’s "anger" against North Korea’s continual "provocation." In the same vein, Taiwan’s Central News Agency cited a report in a Hong Kong magazine that said China has suggested to North Korea a revision of their Pyongyang-Beijing treaty of friendship. Under the alleged proposed treaty revision, China would no longer pledge to intervene militarily if a third country attacks the North after the nation conducts a nuclear test. A diplomatic source stressed, "If the reports are true, China’s suggestion is more important than the actual revision [of the treaty] iteslf." The source means that China may be seeking to completely rework the North Korea-China relationship due to North Korea’s continued nuclear development in the face of international pressure. For the time being, China seems to have bought time for negotiation by agreeing to the U.N. resolution.The New York Times reported that U.S. president George W. Bush will shortly call Hu Jintao, his Chinese counterpart, and urge him to play a positive role. With this prediction, some observers say that China is likely to send a high-ranking special envoy to Pyongyang and attempt to persuade North Korea to abandon its test plans, added the Times. Other sources say that China is indeed considering sending a high-ranking special envoy, and consultations within the government are currently underway on the issue, the sources said. However, China may balk at dispatching a special envoy to Pyongyang. Shortly after North Korea’s missile tests in July, Beijing sent a delegation headed by its Vice Premier Hui Langyu, but the delegation failed to persuade North Korea, nor did it receive an audience of equivalent rank in Pyongyang. A diplomatic source in Beijing said, "As long as the nation remains suspicious that a visit to Pyongyang by lower-level officials will not be fruitful, China will not send a [working-level] envoy to North Korea." Rather, high-level officials may visit Pyongyang instead.
