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Korean researchers try to detect radioactivity.
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Experts still at a loss to confirm verity of declared nuclear test
Did North Korea really test a nuclear device on the morning of October 9? It is not an easy question to answer. Some experts say it was a "half success," or "half failure," depending on their choice of semantics. Others call the North’s claim of a nuclear test bogus. In the meantime, little in the way of fact has been gathered surrounding the declared nuclear test. Intelligence authorities are believed to have failed to confirm the exact site of the blast. An underground nuclear test would leave a large, visible crater, but no such change in landscape has yet been detected. In addition, no radioactivity has been detected in the air following the test. We can interpret this in two ways, experts say. First is a failure of intelligence. Even the U.S. has no specific information on the North’s alleged nuclear test. Second is the lack of information sharing: the U.S., with the most sophisticated tools of analysis in terms of nuclear test detection, balks at disclosing its information. Disagreement is rife four days after the test. A senior South Korean government official said on October 11, "The U.S. presumes Punggye-ri, Gilju, North Hamkyeong Province as the test site, while South Korea’s intelligence agency suspects the site is Sangpyeong-ri, Gimchaek, North Hamkyeong Provice." However, another South Korean government official said on October 12 that South Korean officials are leaning toward the U.S.’s estimate of the test location. Rep. Kim Hee-jeong of the main opposition Grand National Party argued that the difference came after an analytical error by the Korea Institute of Geoscience & Mineral Resource. Nevertheless, information is scarce, and no concrete information has emerged as to why each government believes what it does.Additionally, in the case of an underground nuclear explosion, a crater with a diameter between 300 m and 1 km is formed, experts say. The U.S. is understood to be observing North Korea with all available surveillance devices, including the KH12 spy satellite, which can identify a 12-cm object at an altitude of 500 km. Despite all these efforts, there has been no word of the detection of a change in landscape in the region. In addition, spy planes such as WC-135C or WC-135W have detected no trace of radioactive material in the air. So far, the only information available after the North’s declared nuclear test were artificial seismic waves detected by the Korea Institute of Geoscience & Mineral Research and other geological researchers in the U.S., Japan, and other countries. Meanwhile, speculation abounds as to what information the U.S. might have, and why it is not being forthcoming with it. A South Korean intelligence official said, "In fact, strangely, there is no information-sharing between South Korea and the U.S." Another South Korean government official said, "Information on North Korea’s nuclear capability may not be publicized in the future."
