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Kim Jong-il. (Korean Central News Agency, Yonhap)
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Kim Jong-il's sons likely candidates, but nothing is certain, say experts
The Japanese daily Mainichi Shinbun reported on November 30 that Ko young-hee, also known as Kim Jong-il's third wife, had published a book about her father in Pyongyang on July 20. The book was about a famous judo player, as Ko's been, but the writer turned out to be the wrong Ko. This episode highlights how difficult it is for outsiders to gain access to what is really transpiring in the reclusive country to the north. Especially difficult is grasping the inner machinations of North Korea's political arena. But with North Korea's second leader in history nearing 70, the world is theorizing about the power transition that will be seen in the communist country. The world - South Korea included - sees it as a sure bet that the North will move toward enacting another father-to-son power transition. Just as the late Kim Il-sung, the founder of the North, transferred power to his son, observers say that Kim Jong-il will consider handing over the country to his son. This prediction, to some extent, is based on the patriarch-centered aspect of Confucianism, deep-rooted in North and South Korea alike. Based on this premise, possible candidates come down to three men: Jong-nam, a son between Kim and actress Song Hye-rim, and Jong-chol and Jong-un, born between Kim and former dancer Ko Young-hee.Still, nothing is certain, with rumors and allegations swirling about Kim's three sons. Jong-nam is reported to have lost ground in the power struggle after his mother exiled herself to a Western country in 1996, and was further sidelined in the race when he was caught sneaking into Japan with a fabricated passport in 2001. The second son, Jong-chol, is reportedly favored by the country's military, but some observers say that he is not in good health. Jung-un is preferred by Kim Jong-il, but again, this assertion is still based on rumors. Some experts, however, say that it is not appropriate to identify "power inheritance" with "father-to-son transition" in the North, since Kim Jong-il himself did not inherit the country from his father but rather took control after a fierce power struggle with his uncles. It would be too dangerous to hand over his power to sons untested in leadership, they added. Professor Park Han-sik, a North Korea expert at the University of Georgia said at a lecture in Seoul just after returning from his North Korea trip, "There is no sign [of power transition preparation] in the North," "My speculation is that the power inheritance will not likely be handed to the next generation." Park added that a father-to-son transition would also become more difficult if the North ever becomes part of the international community. Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]
