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Top U.S. negotiator Christopher Hill
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Divided voices see pessimism in U.S., Japan, guarded optimism in S.K., China
As the six-party talks recessed last week, each participating country was divided over what progress has been made via the multilateral disarmament talks designed to end North Korea's nuclear weapons program. The North seems to remain solely concerned about the financial sanctions placed against it, seeking to leave the ball in the U.S. court. Meanwhile, the U.S. and Japan remain pessimistic over any breakthrough down the road, but China and South Korea have been positive about the fact that negotiations have finally restarted. Overall, the U.S. is painting a bleak outlook, saying that it would be almost impossible for the North to give up its nuclear weapons program anytime soon. Though the New York Times saw a bright spot in the fact that Pyongyang showed a willingness to implement the joint statement of September 19, 2005 during this round of six-party talks, the newspaper still said it will become tougher to persuade the communist country to discard its nuclear weapons just after it has declared itself a nuclear power.The Washington Post was also pessimistic in its evaluation of the current situation, saying that the Bush administration will have to prepare a "Plan B" in the face of a possible deadlock in its diplomatic polices against North Korea, and Iran, as well. The newspaper said that the U.S. government still sticks to diplomacy, but the deadlock in the six-party talks represents a much tougher road ahead. A U.S. government official was also quoted in the report as saying that the Bush administration's diplomacy against the North faces a roadblock, and an alternative needs to be sought to resolve pending issues. Ivo Daalder at the Brookings Institution echoed this sentiment, saying in a report that the Bush administration has failed to spend enough time in crafting a secondary plan of action for U.N-led diplomacy dealing with the North, adding that Washington lacks diplomatic leverage, ability, and credibility in resolving the North Korea issue through diplomacy. Meanwhile, becoming more specific about the U.S.’s "misguided" diplomatic efforts, the Los Angeles Times reported that the matter of North Korean funds frozen at Macau-based Banco Delta Asia is not a trivial issue for North Korea, refuting what U.S. chief negotiator Christopher Hill had earlier suggested. In the optimist camp, Gary Samore, director of studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, said that the possibility of talks taking place within a few weeks, not within a few months, is a positive move, and could mean that the U.S. and North Korea could narrow their differences on financial issues. In 6-party talks, China sees way out, Japan sees futility Now that the week of six-nation meetings on North Korea’s nuclear program has come to a close, China views this round as somewhat successful, especially given that the U.S. and North Korea confirmed their differences on pending issues. However, Beijing still remains cautious over possible mounting pressure by the U.S. on China to induce North Korea to step up to the negotiating table. Japan, meanwhile, remains pessimistic about the feasibility of the multinational disarmament talks designed to bring Pyongyang to give up its nuclear weapons program, with some hard-liners in Tokyo demanding toughened sanctions against the North’s regime. Li Dunqiu, director of the Korean Peninsula Research Center of China's State Council, blamed the U.S. and North Korea for failing to produce a breakthrough in the six-party talks. He said that the two nations have not made strategic compromises during the negotiations. Nevertheless, he said, the multilateral talks have paved the way for the resolution of the nuclear issue on the Korean peninsula by easing tension among countries and confirming the differences between Washington and Pyongyang. An international relations expert in China also forecast the possibility of a compromise between the U.S. and North Korea on the nuclear issue, as the two nations have agreed to continue with negotiations. Some Chinese officials, however, are concerned about possible mounting pressure by the U.S. on their government to exert more leverage on North Korea. A Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said that it would be unrealistic and unfair to think that progress or a breakthrough in the six-party talks depends entirely on China’s efforts. He added that the final results should be determined through a concerted effort by all participating countries. Meanwhile, Japanese media have pointed out that the countries concerned do not know what to do with the North after it declared itself a nuclear power, with some reports raising doubt over the feasibility of the talks. Behind the "failed" six-party talks lies North Korea’s inflexibility and hastily-arranged negotiations with each participant while failing to set forth a clear stance, some Japanese media reported. Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo has emphasized the importance of ’getting tough’ on the North. Following the talks, he said that the international community would intensify its pressure on the communist country, adding that the UN-led resolutions in reaction to the North’s weapons programs should be implemented through concerted efforts by UN-member nations. Some right-wing media in Japan said that there is no other way out of the situation but to toughen restrictions on the North. But Japan’s Foreign Minister Aso Taro noted that Japan is not considering additional sanctions at present, since financial restrictions that it had previously imposed are currently having an impact. Will the 6-party talks resolve the financial sanctions issue? When North Korea’s state-run Central News Agency reported on December 23, just following the conclusion of the fifth round of six-party talks on the North’s nuclear program, that "Vice Foreign Minister Kim Kye-gwan stressed that North Korea would carefully watch the U.S.’s attitude," it may have been a window into North Korea’s future direction on the issue. With Pyongyang’s terse statement, it has in effect passed the ball to Washington, indicating that the North would be waiting for the negotiations slated for early next year in New York, where the problem of North Korean funds frozen at Macau-based Banco Delta Asia will be discussed. North Korea also thinks that U.S. demands made at the recent six-party talks were unilateral ones. At a press conference on December 22, Vice Foreign Minister Kim said, "The U.S. demanded the verified suspension of nuclear activities without proposing measures to lift the sanctions." Through its "military-first" brand of politics, North Korea is busy stressing domestically that the nation should prepare for additional pressure to be levied against it. Referring especially to the six-nation talks, Kim Young-chun, deputy marshal of the Korean People’s Army, warned, "If hostile forces continuously step up maneuvers for sanctions and pressure, we will cope resolutely by using more powerful countermeasures." It appears that such a remark was made against anticipated U.S. and Japanese hard-line countermoves resulting from those countries seeing the six-party talks as a fruitless venture. South Korea may be a little disappointed at the lack of success at the negotiations, but the nation thinks it is important for the six countries involved to break the impasse between North Korea and the U.S. currently faced in the talks. Professor Kim Yeon-chul of Korea University said, "Even though the participants of the talks couldn’t reach an agreement, it is clear that they began negotiations to break the deadlock." Rather than talking about the ineffectiveness of the nuclear talks, the forum and U.S.-North Korea bilateral meetings should be held continuously, added Professor Kim. Seo Dong-man, a professor at Sangji University, said, "It took such a long time to achieve the basic agreement of the [September 19, 2005] joint declaration. As both Pyongyang and Washington showed they were in a position to negotiate, they will sustain a phase of negotiation for a while." However, Kim Gi-jeong, a professor of Yonsei University, said that to resolve the Banco Delta Asia issue, the participants’ "comprehensive determination" is needed. "Through an all-out diplomatic war," he said, "they will be able to find a breakthrough." Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]
