[News analysis] The downward spiral of S. Korea-Japan relations

Forced labor victim Lee Choon-sik, 94, shares his thoughts after the Supreme Court ruled that Nippon Steel and Sumitomo Metal needs to compensate victims who were forced into under the Japanese colonial occupation of Korea. (Kim Myoung-jin, staff photographer)

Japan’s response to Supreme Court ruling on forced labor at the root of souring relations

South Korea-Japan relations are locked into a spiraling vicious cycle, and neither side has yet found any avenue of escape. Even as the situation has been exacerbated by frictions over incidents involving patrol aircrafts and targeting radar and the issue of Japanese textbooks, the roots of the situation lie in Japan’s objections to a South Korean Supreme Court ruling ordering compensation for forced labor conscription.

In October 2018, the Supreme Court issued a ruling ordering Japanese companies to pay compensation to forced labor victims. The companies have refused, while the Japanese government has threatened “retaliatory measures” and denounced South Korea for undermining the terms of the two sides’ Claims Settlement Agreement. It is a case of the perpetrator of Japan pressuring the victimized South Korea. The South Korean government has merely stated that it “does not intend to intervene in a judicial decision” and that it plans to “respond to bilateral relations under a two-track approach separating historical issues from regular matters.” At the same time, it has yet to come up with any clear solutions.

Three possible scenarios could emerge if Japanese businesses continue refusing to pay and the two governments cannot present a solution.

1st scenario: disposal of the companies’ assets in South Korea and Japanese retaliation

The first is one in which the victims go ahead with disposal of the companies’ seized assets in South Korea and Japan responds with retaliatory economic measures. Experts say the likelihood of Japan attempting retaliatory tariffs and/or restrictions on remittances and visa issuance – as mentioned by Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso – is not high, as these measures would also hurt Japan. But Tokyo is also reportedly considering seizing an equivalent amount of South Korean corporate assets in Japan and converting it into cash as a “protest measure.” As Japan’s protest measures lead to retaliation from South Korea, the possibility of matters escalating into a veritable economic war cannot be ruled out completely.

2nd scenario: foundation established by S. Korea and Japan to compensate victims

In the second scenario, a foundation is established to pay compensation to the victims, with the participation of the South Korea and Japanese governments and companies. Other companies would also be able to take part, including the South Korean businesses that profited from the Claims Settlement Agreement and Japanese businesses that have been implicated in war crimes. The problem in this case is that the likelihood of the Shinzo Abe administration and Japanese companies agreeing to this is virtually nil.

“What the victims want is an apology and compensation from Japan’s government and companies, and all of them oppose a scenario where a foundation is established and compensation provided by the South Korean government and companies alone without the perpetrators being involved,” explained attorney Lee Sang-gap, who is representing victims in a lawsuit concerning forced labor under Mitsubishi. The number of conscription victims who will demand compensation also remains difficult to predict, and concerns that costs could escalate to a level beyond coping represent a stumbling block.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe

3rd scenario: judgment by International Court of Justice

A third scenario involves a judgment by the International Court of Justice (ICJ). The South Korean government has maintained that this is unacceptable, but some experts in South Korea-Japan relations and the law have recently suggested this may represent the “next best option.” If an ICJ hearing is held, the key question will concern whether the right of individuals to claim compensation was also extinguished with the 1965 Claims Settlement Agreement. But it would also be a “trial of the century” scenario in which the illegality of Japan’s colonial government would come under scrutiny.

“Japanese courts have also come out with the opinion that the individual right to claim damages remains, and with some legal experts viewing forced conscription as tantamount to ‘quasi-slavery,’ South Korea stands a strong chance of winning,” predicted Kookmin University professor Lee Won-deog.

“It takes about four years for a ruling to emerge, and Japan could ask for reconciliation once it senses the burden of the stark reality of its colonial ruling becoming an international issue,” he suggested.

But many continue to oppose this approach, arguing that the potential consequences of a loss should also be taken into account.

Increasing dissatisfaction over S. Korean government’s lack of response

While Seoul has stressed the need for a “prudent” response, it faces growing criticism even from civil society over its inability to get the situation in hand.

“The suffering of the victims is not simply a personal issue, but has to do with their country being taken away and their own government failing to properly resolve the issue with the South Korea-Japan Claims Settlement Agreement,” said Lee Sang-gap.

“Resolving this matter is the government’s responsibility, yet they have been passing the burden off on the victims and courts without working to come up with an alternative solution,” he argued.

An important moment for gauging whether South Korea-Japan relations can return to normal will come in late June, when the G20 Summit is held in Osaka. In a National Assembly Q&A session in political sphere on Mar. 19, South Korean Prime Minister Lee Nak-yon said, “Behind-the-scenes dialogue toward a [South Korea-Japan] summit is under way, and I anticipate that a South Korea-Japan summit will be taking place within the first half of the year.” This was taken as a sign that behind-the-scenes dialogue is being used as a means of preventing the situation from spiraling further and arranging a summit that could provide a turning point.

But forced labor victims are likely to proceed with disposal of the seized assets if momentum cannot be established in the next few months.

“Japan is also waiting, having made the strategic determination that it should avoid things potentially backfiring if it provokes South Korea too much,” said Sungkonghoe University professor Yang Kee-ho.

“But if the victims do go ahead with disposing of the Japanese company assets, [Tokyo] could actually proceed with retaliatory measures due to public opinion at home,” he predicted.

By Park Min-hee, staff reporter

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