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Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe
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No signs of Tokyo backing down on removing South Korea from “white list”
The Japanese government reiterated a message of pressure against Seoul on July 18, a day ahead of the deadline for its response to Tokyo’s calls to establish an arbitration board to address the issue of a Supreme Court ruling ordering compensation to survivors of forced labor mobilization. While analysts predict Tokyo is unlikely to lodge a case against South Korea with the International Court of Justice (ICJ) any time soon, it is also being predicted that Japan’s hardline policy course on South Korea is unlikely to change. In a regular press conference on July 18, Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasutoshi Nishimura said, “South Korea is obligated by agreement to respond on the arbitration matter by midnight tonight [July 18].” “The Japanese government will continue to sternly damage its agreement to [the establishment of] an arbitration board,” he said. The South Korea-Japan Claims Settlement Agreement stipulates three procedures for dispute resolution: discussions through diplomatic channels, establishment of an arbitration board consisting chiefly of members nominated by the two sides, and the establishment of a third country-led arbitration board. After Seoul declined to respond to the demand to establish an arbitration board with members appointed by the parties themselves, Tokyo responded on June 19 by demanding the final stage of a response – establishment of an arbitration board with a third-country arbitrator – and demanded Seoul’s response by July 18 (i.e., within 30 days of the request). A Blue House senior official previously said on July 16 that Seoul does not intent to accept Japan’s proposal to establish an arbitration board for the final stage of dispute resolution. When asked in a July 18 regular briefing whether the South Korean government planned to agree to Japan’s request, Kim In-cheol, spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, reiterated the refusal. “That schedule was set unilaterally and arbitrarily by Japan. We question whether there is any need for us to be bound by it,” Kim said. Japanese press reports ICJ complaint is unlikely When asked how the Japanese government planned to respond if South Korea did not respond to the demand to set up an arbitration board, Nishimura said other that he would “refrain from answering questions about hypotheticals.” But Japanese news outlets reported the same day that no ICJ complaint against South Korea is likely to be forthcoming even if the deadline passes for establishing an arbitration board. Instead, they predicted it would pursue “resistance” (retaliation) measures if South Korean forced labor survivors liquidate assets belonging to Japanese companies. Many observers are saying the apparent “break” from Japan bears no relation to the larger trend. “While it is unclear for now whether Japan will request an ICJ suit now or later, it doesn’t hold any great significance,” a foreign affairs source in Tokyo said that day. “The Japanese government hasn’t begun to slow its roll, and we still view its position as hardline,” the source added. Tokyo’s decision to hold off on a suit appears based on the conclusion that the approach’s effectiveness is questionable – and its outcome uncertain – since a trial would be unable to proceed without the South Korean government’s agreement. The unexpectedly tough stance from South Korea may also have been a consideration. In light of the Japanese government’s claims that its export controls are not intended as retaliatory measures on the forced labor conscription issue, the possibility remains that it may come out with additional resistance measures citing “security” or other grounds. There are also no signs of it backing down from its push to remove South Korea from its “white list.” The Japanese government has repeatedly said that would “respond resolutely while keeping various options in view.” By Cho Ki-weon, Tokyo correspondent, and Park Min-hee, staff reporter Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]
