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Japanese Ambassador to Seoul Yasumasa Nagamine is entering the office of South Korea’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in Seoul’s Doryeom neighborhood, on the morning of Aug. 28. Nagamine was summoned to protest Japan’s removal of South Korea from its white list of countries that are granted streamlined screening on exports of strategic materials.
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Experts expect the current chill to continue, without escalation, until the enthronement of the Japanese emperor in October or the GSOMIA termination in November
As part of its continuing heavy-handed treatment of South Korea, Japan pushed ahead on Aug. 28 with a planned revision to its export and trade management rules that removes South Korea from its white list of countries that enjoy expedited screening on exports of strategic materials. Japan has stubbornly rejected South Korea’s repeated requests for dialogue. While expressing its strong regret for Japan’s measures on Wednesday, the Blue House called on Japan for a change of attitude, noting that “the ball is in Japan’s court.” At the same time, Japan chose not to escalate the dispute by increasing the number of products that must receive separate permits before being exported to South Korea. For the time being, South Korea-Japan relations appear to be entering a protracted chill. Potential dates that could trigger a turning point are the enthronement ceremony for the new Japanese emperor, on Oct. 22, and the termination of South Korea’s intelligence-sharing agreement with Japan (the General Security of Military Information Agreement, or GSOMIA), on Nov. 23. If the two sides fail to reach an understanding by that point, the victims of forced labor — who still haven’t received any kind of compensation, despite the South Korean Supreme Court’s ruling in their favor — are likely to move ahead next January of February with liquidating assets seized from Japanese companies, triggering tougher retaliatory measures by Japan. “The dispute will continue after South Korea’s decision to terminate GSOMIA, with Japan reiterating its position that Seoul is untrustworthy on security matters and is defecting from trilateral cooperation with Japan and the US. During the two months prior to the enthronement ceremony for the Japanese emperor in October, the Blue House and the Japanese Prime Minister’s office need to proactively organize backroom discussions aimed at finding a breakthrough,” said Kang Suk-hyeon, head of foreign strategic research at the Institute for National Security Strategy (INSS). Kang’s idea is for the two sides to reach an understanding through dialogue between the Blue House and the Japanese Prime Minister’s office, which has been spearheading the economic retribution against South Korea. Then South Korean President Moon Jae-in or Prime Minster Lee Nak-yeon could visit Japan for the imperial enthronement ceremony in October, creating momentum for restoring bilateral relations. “For the time being, we’re in the eye of the storm: the tensions will continue without any apparent off-ramp. There needs to be a dialogue-based solution before the victims of forced labor sell off seized assets early next year. Since Lee Nak-yeon has expressed his hope that a solution will be found before the enthronement ceremony and has suggested that the GSOMIA termination could be reconsidered if Japan takes forward-looking actions, such as putting South Korea back on its white list, we need to apply our diplomatic resources toward making the most of that momentum,” said Yang Gi-ho, a professor at Sungkonghoe University. On a related note, Kenji Kanasugi, director-general of Asian and Oceanian Affairs for the Japanese Foreign Ministry, will be visiting Seoul on Aug. 29 to meet Kim Jung-han, his counterpart at the South Korean Foreign Ministry, in what will be the first deliberations between the two countries’ diplomats since South Korea was dropped from Japan’s white list. As the Blue House has said, the South Korean government has continued to push Japan to engage in dialogue, even sending a special envoy on Aug. 15, but Japan has rejected those overtures. Given those conditions, the role of the US is emerging as a major variable, in addition to behind-the-scenes diplomacy between South Korea and Japan. The US’ repeated expressions of “concern” about Seoul’s decision to terminate GSOMIA indicate the extent to which it values military cooperation between South Korea, the US, and Japan, which is a major component of its strategy in Northeast Asia. There are continuing calls within the US to recognize the importance of its alliances and to take steps to “repair” South Korea-Japan relations. If South Korea and Japan resume dialogue, their talks will probably focus upon resolving the issue of forced labor. Japan has firmly stated that it won’t join talks unless the South Korean government takes full responsibility for dealing with the issue of forced labor and offers a way to prevent its companies’ assets from being liquidated. South Korea’s position is that deliberation with Japan based on the “one plus one” solution that it proposed on June 19 — namely, creating a fund with money provided by South Korean and Japanese companies — could help the two sides narrow their differences and lead to a new multifaceted solution. For the time being, Japan doesn’t seem likely to further inflame the conflict by imposing additional economic measures on South Korea. Concerns are being raised in Japan about the falling number of tourists and sluggish exports. In a story about Yashima, a Japanese company that exports electrical equipment to South Korea, Japanese broadcaster NHK reported that the company’s sales last month had plunged by about 40%, even though its products aren’t affected by the export regulations. “This doesn’t have to be resolved all at once. The leaders of South Korea and Japan need to bear in mind their mid- and long-term national interests rather than being swayed by overheated public opinion; they need to hold talks, rather than avoiding dialogue,” the Asahi Shimbun said, arguing that a summit should be organized to find a solution. “Because of the domestic situation, even Abe isn’t able to keep escalating the situation. Some Japanese are calling for self-reflection and questioning whether South Korea is really the enemy, and others are saying that Abe needs to be reined in,” Kim Suk-hyeon said. But, Kim acknowledged, “even if a solution is found by resuming dialogue, South Korea-Japan relations are unlikely to return to where they were before Japan imposed retaliatory economic measures on July 2.” By Park, Min-hee senior staff writer and Cho Ki-weon, Tokyo correspondent
