Posted on : May.16,2006 13:54 KST
Majority occupies middle of the road
Hankyoreh opinion survey (3)
In order to know which way a society is heading, it is necessary to figure out the thoughts of its individual members. The Hankyoreh and the Korean Social Science Center (KSDC) have conducted surveys on South Koreans’ ideological inclinations biennially from 2002. We measured this from two directions. First, we asked respondents where they placed their political orientation, in order to understand their subjective political inclination. In addition, we inquired as to which cause they gave more weight: "helping the less fortunate" (progressive) or "national security" (conservative). This helped to measure their objective ideological inclination.
According to the findings of the survey, in terms of subjective ideology, centrists have been on the increase and conservatives and progressives have been on the decline in the past five years. The progressives whose central force is the so-called "386 generation" of former 1980s student activists and who helped President Roh Moo-hyun win the election have decreased this year. It’s because some of the "386 generation" thought of themselves as centrists when we surveyed them this time.
However, South Koreans’ objective ideological orientation between "helping the less fortunate" and "national security" hasn’t changed significantly in the last five years. The survey this year showed that the ‘consistent progressives," those who placed high value on helping the less fortunate, accounted for 27.2 percent of those surveyed and the "consistent conservatives," who placed a high value on national security, came in at 22.6 percent. The rest of those surveyed said they were confused ideologically. Such a pattern is similar to the findings of 2002 and 2004.
The conservative camp showed a slight increase in membership between 2002 and 2006. In the 2002 poll, consistently progressive voters comprised 31.3 percent of the population, compared with the 17.4 percent of consistently conservative voters. At that time, the cohesive power of progressives was stronger than that of conservatives.
But the gap between the two ideologies narrowed after 2004 and 2006. In 2004, those consistently progressive in their outlook came in at 27.9 percent and those consistently conservative registered 22 percent, and in 2006, the gap became smaller, with 27.2 percent progressive and 22.6 percent conservative, respectively.
Indeed, with the gap narrowing, centrism seemed on the rise between 2002 and 2006. The ratio of voters who regarded themselves as conservative has declined gradually, recording 43.8 percent in 2002, 38.7 percent in 2004 and 36.2 percent in 2006. The ratio of progressives has also seen a downward trend, with 25.8 percent identifying in 2002, 23.5 percent in 2004 and 16.4 percent in 2006. On the contrary, the ratio of voters who said they were centrist has climbed, with 30.4 percent in 2002, 37.8 percent in 2004 and 47.4 percent in 2006.
Other factors can effect these shifts. On the whole, general elections stress the importance of political ideology more strongly than do regional elections, and presidential elections are the strongest of all. Each of these surveys fell on an election year. The politically polarizing effect of the 2002 presidential election was not as prevalant during the 2004 general elections, and now that local elections are coming up, the pull toward party affiliation has become even weaker.
Lee Nam Young (professor at Sookmyung Women’s University, director of KSDC)
Kim Hyung-joon (professor at Graduate School of Politics of Kookmin University, deputy director of KSDC)
Kim Uk (professor of Pai Chai University, executive of KSDC)
