Attack elevates popularity of GNP and its chairwoman

Park Geun-hye, chairwoman of the opposition Grand National Party, enjoys rising popularity in the wake of the attack on her on May 19. Yonhap News

Most undecided voters will lean toward GNP, experts say

The opposition Grand National Party (GNP) has seen an additional jump in their already-dominant popularity, a week after the attack on Park Geun-hye, the party chair and likely presidential candidate.

Polls showed gaps widening between runners-up to GNP candidates, and according to a Hankook Research poll, 44.3 percent of respondents said the attack on Ms. Park would affect regional election results the most. According to a survey conducted by MBC, in February Ms. Park’s popularity as a possible presidential candidate stood at 15.4 percent, whereas following the attack her popularity rose to 21.5 percent, the highest among three potential candidates.

Ms. Park was slashed in the face with a utility knife at a political rally in Seoul May 20. She is hospitalized but recovering quickly, doctors say. The suspect is in custody.

In the aftermath of the attack, some experts say, Ms. Park will be able to shake off the image of her father, late president and dictator Park Chung Hee. Im Sang-ryeol, a representative of market survey firm Research Plus, said, "Park’s image, of a politician who coped with the incident with composure and helped to tide over the crisis," will help her overcome the opinion held by some that she is getting a ’free political ride’ because of her family connections.

Many see her increased popularity as shoring up any "floating," or undecided, voters. "Normally, in every election, floating voters account for 40 to 50 percent of the nation’s entire eligible voters a week before the election day, and the competition among candidates to secure those floating voters decides the results," said Professor Kim Hyeong-jun at Kookmin University. "However, after the Park incident, people say that it is meaningless to compete to win floating voters."

In addition, Ms. Park must resign as representative of the GNP before July in order to be eligible to run for president. Her increased support, combined with her soon-to-be affiliation with the GNP, is seen as pushing her into a coveted ’moderate’ position. This is especially important for her political career, as Seoul mayor and fellow GNP member Lee Myung-bak his her biggest conservative challenger for the presidency.

A sweep in local elections is not always the best thing for a political party, experts say. If the GNP takes its expected overwhelming win in next week’s local elections but makes no substantial progress with it, observers say, the party will feel the effects at the next presidential election, scheduled for 2008. "Unlike in local elections, in presidential elections voters tend to make their judgments based on a vision of the future," said Park Seong-min, representative of Min Consulting. If the GNP in the next two years is "insensitive to the public’s demands," said Mr. Park, positive results in the local elections could turn negative two years down the road.