Timing unclear for North Korea missile test fire

U.S. Ambassador to Japan Thomas Scheiffer, right, meets Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Aso on June 17 to discuss North Korea's possible missile test launch. Tokyo/AP Yonhap

Seoul, Washington reports differ on launch preparedness

Seoul and Washington hold different predictions regarding the timing of North Korea’s possible test fire of a Taepondong-2 missile. Officials in Washington call the launch imminent. However, with no further preparatory signals observed at the missile test site on June 19, officials in the South said the North might have delayed the test due to weather conditions or technical problems.

U.S. officials asking to remain anonymous told Reuters news service on June 18 that North Korea has seemed to finish fueling the missile. Officials in Seoul, however, reportedly said that such a confirmation was not possible, saying that it is difficult to make conclusive decisions about the situation through satellite photos because weather conditions were cloudy over the test site.

Thick clouds and rain filled the sky over the military base in Musudan-ri, formerly Taepo-dong, North Hangyeong province, where the test launch would occur. According to analysts, under such weather the North can launch a missile without problem, but would be hindered in tracing the orbit and the point of impact by radar. The weather near Musudan-ri area is expected to clear up by about June 21.

According to some observers, intelligence-gathering bodies in South Korea and the U.S. have also raised the possibility of the North’s imminent test-firing of the missile because they have detected North Korean radar signals used to trace airborne objects emanating from the Musudan-ri launch facility.

Some South Korean government officials maintained a more guarded stance regarding the possibility of an actual test launch, saying that the North was probably just flexing its military potential without actually intending to go through with it. If Pyongyang truly intended to launch the missile, the officials said, they would not be biding their time, as they are currently.

One South Korean source said that prior to launching a missile, North Korea usually takes precautionary measures in anticipation of any possible international reaction, including fortifying its military land strength. No indications of such activities were observed in this case, the source said.

The U.S. official quoted by Reuters said, "There still is a possibility for Pyongyang to cancel the missile launch," but according to the official, the probability is not high.

The Yomiuri Shinbun in Japan cited a government source there who said, "If the North intends to ’shake up’ the U.S., it may take its time to launch the missile." Because of recent technological improvements, the missile can be fuleled but not launched for several weeks, the Yomiuri Shinbun added. The newspaper said that Pyongyang may have decided to delay the test-fire to not only rankle the U.S. but to draw greater attention to itself overall.