North-South relations: about to thaw?

Restart of six-party talks key for inter-Korean affairs

With North Korea’s decision to return to the six-party talks, the stalled South-North relationship has begun picking up again.

Inter-Korea relations rapidly worsened after Seoul suspended additional support of rice and fertilizer following Pyongyang’s missile launches on July 5. The North stopped the reunion of families separated after the war and refused dialogue with the South. Moreover, the South suspended support for North Korean victims of this summer’s devastating floods after the North’s nuclear test on October 9. The relations between the two Koreas have reached a near-total freeze.

A key to easing South-North relations will be the resumption of rice and fertilizer aid. However, Seoul has declared it will not resume the support until it sees a breakthrough on the matter of Pyongyang’s missile tests. South-North relations are thus inherently connected with the resumption of the six-nation talks.

Logically, since North Korea declared on October 31 that it would resume the six-party talks, South Korea should resume this support right away. However, after the North Korean nuclear test, public opinion in the South toward support for the North has been more critical. On November 1, unification minister Lee Jong-Seok said that the government should review the timing of resuming aid to North Korea, remarks which were backed up by other government officials. Such remarks can be interpreted to mean the government will decide on the resumption of aid to the North after considering the progress seen in the next round of six-party talks and the sustained level of the U.N. Security Council’s sanctions against North Korea.

Accordingly, a logical move for the South to take would be to first reopen its aid to the North’s flood victims, and then when the South and the North agree to restart the separated families reunions or Red Cross talks, Seoul can review the resumption of rice and fertilizer shipments. After the North’s missile test, Seoul has suspended 10,000 tons of rice, 75,000 tons of cement, 120 tons of raw metals, and 50 dump trucks, among other things.

It is highly possible that the North will unofficially express the necessity to open a meeting on the topic of aid, and then the South will officially suggest holding one. We cannot rule out the possibility that the North will suggest military working-level contacts or talks between the two governments in exchange for raw materials or rice. But if at the six-party talks the North Korea-U.S. confrontation worsens, South-North relations will worsen, as well.