Former Seoul mayor tops polls for next Korean leader

Lee Myung-bak

But Lee Myung-bak’s soaring popularity brings unease, even in his camp

Lee Myung-bak, a leading presidential hopeful for the main opposition Grand National Party, has seen his popularity soar in recent weeks.

The former Seoul mayor is topping opinion polls performed exactly a year before the next presidential election, slated for December 19, 2007. Former GNP chairwoman Park Geun-hye and former prime minister Goh Kun are trailing in second and third place, respectively.

Lee overwhelmingly defeated Park in several surveys targeting GNP supporters, indicating Lee as the party’s strongest bet.

Park Geun-hye

Regarding causes behind Lee’s popularity, experts mentioned the so-called bandwagon effect, with the public following the same general tendency toward one choice. Kim Hun-tae, head of the Korea Society Opinion Institute, said that Lee Myung-bak has been leading the opinion polls since fall, and since then, public sentiment has been cemented by the general trend.

In the meantime, Kim Hyeong-jun, professor of Kookmin University, noted, "Since North Korea’s nuclear test in October, the uneasiness of the public over the national economy and security issues has led to the desire for powerful leadership, and the support for Lee, who had various major accomplishments [as Seoul mayor], such as the Cheonggye Stream restoration project, has been strengthened."

Goh Kun

In addition, due to internal strife in the ruling camp, many followers of Goh Kun, who is widely known as its candidate, are now supporting Lee, added professor Kim. He predicted, "Until the ruling party rearranges its system or a significant moral flaw of Lee is uncovered, it is highly possible that the general public tendency toward supporting Lee Myung-bak will settle for good."

Many experts, however, warned that such a tendency could also be dangerous for Lee. If his popularity continues to increase, he will be the target of intensive attacks both inside and outside of his party, they said.

Indeed, Lee’s camp has expressed "uneasiness" regariding his high popularity. One of Lee’s aides said that "the popularity of Lee has gained much earlier than expected. We are worried that the leader of the race will likely be under undiscriminate fire from all the followers, while we have a long way to go."

The Park Geun-hye camp has called the current opinion polls "almost meaningless," while at the same time striving to reverse the Lee Myung-bak trend. In relation to the gap in popularity between Lee and Park, a National Assembly member close to Park said that considering various factors, the actual popularity gap is "only about 7-8 percentage points."

"If Park begins to fully bring forth her policy plans in January, and if Lee goes through a complete verification process, public opinion will change," he stressed, asking not to be named.

Kim Duk-bong, Goh Kun’s secretary for media relations, also saw the possibility of a sea change, saying, "If Goh actualizes a new integrated party separate from the ruling Uri Party, his popularity will rise sharply." Goh, an independent candidate, was reported to have plans to build his own party prior to the presidential election, with membership consisting of politicians reportedly set to quit the ruling Uri Party.

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