Weather forecasters take heat for foggy predictions

After several missed predictions, public takes aim at nat’l weather agency

South Korea’s national weather agency has been under public fire after several of its recent forecasts missed the mark.

The Korea Metrological Administration (KMA) responded that weather is, well, as unpredictable as weather.

Since January 29, the KMA has predicted that as much as 5.0 centimeters of snow would fall in Seoul and the eastern part of South Korea. However, so far, Seoul has seen only 0.5 centimeters of snow on January 30.

Kim Tae-su, a KMA official, said the snowfall was less than expected as the snow turned into rain, admitting that the weather agency failed to properly forecast the day’s high temperature.

In addition, the KMA predicted a yellow dust storm in the western part of the country from January 30, about 40 days earlier than the storm’s usual yearly arrival. However, that forecast was off, as well. As of January 30, the highest density of minute dust particles in the air was 252 micrograms per cubic meter in the dustiest areas. Typically, the KMA issues yellow dust storm warnings after the particle density reaches above 300 micrograms per cubic meter. The region’s winter average is 50-60 micrograms per cubic meter, so there was a noticeable rise in the air’s dust content, but under the warning level.

Last weekend, the KMA predicted as much as 10.0 centimeters of heavy snowfall in the nation’s central and southwestern zones. However, the snowfall was about 1.0 centimeter in Seoul and most of the central region. KMA found itself under fire from people who had canceled their weekend travel plans based on the forecast.

The KMA defended its off-the-mark forecasts, citing "uncontrollable limiting factors" such as abnormal climate changes and rapidly changing movement of the air current above the Yellow Sea.

"Last week, all scientific data said the center of a depression front would pass into the nation’s central region, but instead it passed through the nation’s southern part," Kim said. "It’s impossible to perfectly forecast the movement of air currents above the Yellow Sea."

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