[News Analysis] Blue House cautious about setting hopes too high for inter-Korean talks

The two men who will lead high-level talks, South Korean Unification Minister Cho Myoung-gyon (left) and Ri Son-gwon, chair of North Korea’s Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland.

The first round of dialogue will focus on North Korean participation in the Pyeongchang Olympics

North and South Korea will soon be sitting down at the negotiating table for the first time in two years and one month. The talks have been made possible by the direct efforts of the leaders of the two sides. The question is whether this can go beyond ensuring the success of the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics and serve as a catalyst for bringing peace to the Korean Peninsula.

One of the characteristics of the talks scheduled for Jan. 9 is that they were achieved through “indirect conservation” between South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. During his New Year’s address on Jan. 1, Kim described the Pyeongchang Olympics as a great event for the Korean nation and hinted that he would be willing to send a North Korean delegation to the Olympic Games and to participate in inter-Korean talks to make that a reality. Moon responded on Jan. 2 by expressing his “welcome and support” on Jan. 2 and by instructing the Unification Ministry and the Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism to make preparations.

After that, South Korean Unification Minister Cho Myoung-gyon and Ri Son-gwon, chair of North Korea’s Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland, hurried to complete the arrangements for the talks on the authority of their respective leaders.

The cable that North Korea sent through a phone call on Jan. 5 was signed by Ri and addressed to Cho. This means that the teams of negotiators at the high-level talks proposed by South Korea will be led by minister-level officials. The last meeting between North and South Korean officials of ministerial rank or higher occurred in Aug. 2015, when National Security Advisor Kim Kwan-jin and Unification Minister Hong Yong-pyo from South Korea and Korean People's Army General Political Bureau Chief Hwang Pyong-so and Korean Workers’ Party Central Committee Secretary Kim Yang-gon from North Korea met after South Korean soldiers were maimed by a landmine that blew up near the DMZ.

In its cable, North Korea said that the agenda of the meeting would be matters related to improving inter-Korean relations, including North Korea’s participation in the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics. The scope and extent of improving inter-Korean relations will apparently be determined during the talks themselves.

“The discussion will basically focus on the question of North Korea participating in the Pyeongchang Olympics. Since North and South Korea have not sat down together for a long time and since these will be high-level deliberations, I also think there could be a discussion of matters of mutual interest,” Cho told reporters on Jan. 5.

The Blue House appears to be cautious about setting its hopes too high. “The question of participating in the Olympics will probably have to be wrapped up before we can discuss improving inter-Korean relations. We are open to the possibility of discussing other issues, but it’s still too early to say how this will play out,” said a senior official at the Blue House.

Stamps at a store in Pyongyang commemorate North Korean participation in past Winter Olympics. (AFP/Yonhap News)

Family reunions and easing of military tensions are future priorities

If the agenda of the talks is expanded, the main priority will presumably be placed on military talks to ease tensions around the military demarcation line and Red Cross talks to arrange reunions for the divided families, talks which Seoul has already proposed. Given the precedent of North and South Korean military officials holding talks to guarantee the safety of people involved in inter-Korean people-to-people exchange, military talks could be arranged subsequently to the high-level talks.

Since North Korea has demanded the repatriation of the 12 North Korean women who were part of a group defection from the city of Ningbo in China’s Zhejiang Province in Apr. 2016 as the prerequisite for reunions for the divided families, it’s unclear whether Red Cross talks can be held. “We won’t know that until we sit down and talk with them,” said a senior official with the Blue House. “Because there are so many practical matters to deal with, such as putting together a support team and a team of people to attend the reunions, we’re hesitant to jump to conclusions about whether or not an agreement can be reached during the meeting.”

The abrupt decision by South Korea and the US to delay their joint military exercises – to which North Korea has long objected – until after the Pyeongchang Olympics is also improving the prospects for talks. Since Kim mentioned not only participating in Pyeongchang but also completely restoring inter-Korean relations in his New Year’s address, getting off on the right foot is likely to be of crucial importance. Now that inter-Korean dialogue is underway, momentum will have to be built on small successes.

With the talks just a few days off, North and South Korea have agreed to keep the Panmunjeom communication channel open on the weekend and to take care of practical preparations by exchanging documents.

“After North and South Korea reach an agreement, there are matters that must be discussed with the IOC [International Olympic Committee]. We’ve been told that North Korea is also planning to hold deliberations with the IOC by the end of next week,” said Unification Ministry Spokesperson Baek Tae-hyeon.

Various ministries in the South Korean government are planning to craft a negotiating strategy based on the agenda of the talks and to hold strategic dialogue (between ministers), planning team meetings (between vice ministers) and mock meetings (between lower-level officials) to find ways to implement this strategy in the actual negotiations.

By Jung In-hwan, staff reporter

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