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Members of the June 15 Joint Declaration Southern Action Committee hold a large banner with the Korean Peninsula and messages welcoming North Korean participation in the Olympics and inter-Korean dialogue at the Seoul Press Center on Jan. 11. (by Baek So-ah, staff photographer)
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The US has ruled out military action as long as inter-Korean dialogue continues
On the evening of Jan. 10, US President Donald Trump spoke on the phone with South Korean Moon Jae-in in the two leaders’ second telephone call so far this year. During the conversation, Trump mentioned the possibility of direct dialogue between the US and North Korea and pledged not to take any military action against the North as long as inter-Korean dialogue continued. This was the second “security pledge” that South Korea and the US have given the North, following their announcement on Jan. 4 about delaying their joint military exercises. While describing his phone call with Moon during his first cabinet meeting this year, held at the White House on Jan. 10, Trump said, "Who knows where [inter-Korean dialogue] leads. Hopefully, it will lead to success for the world… And we'll be seeing over the next number of weeks and months what happens." A balmy wind is blowing on the Korean Peninsula this year, replacing the chill that set in amid last year’s rumors of war. South Korea and the US governments’ efforts to reduce military tensions by delaying their joint military exercises during the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics led to high-level inter-Korean talks, and the agreement for North Korea to send a delegation to the Olympics next month and to hold inter-Korean military talks have opened a window of opportunity that could lead to dialogue and negotiation aimed at the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. The Pyeongchang Olympics have created a new mood on the Korean Peninsula that could be called the “Pyeongchang Initiative.” South Korea and the US had been discussing the question of delaying their joint military exercises in the spring, which overlapped with the Pyeongchang Olympics, since Dec. 2017, but after North Korean leader Kim Jong-un hinted at the possibility of inter-Korean dialogue and the North’s participation in the Pyeongchang Olympics during his New Year’s address on Jan. 1, they abruptly announced on Jan. 4 that the exercises would be delayed. This was South Korea and the US’s first security pledge to the North. It paved the way for North and South Korean negotiators to sit down together at Panmunjeom on Jan. 9 for the first time in two years and agree that the North would participate in the Pyeongchang Olympics and that they would hold military talks to ease tensions on the Korean Peninsula. The decision to delay the joint military exercises was made shortly before the high-level inter-Korean talks, and the decision to provisionally suspend military action against the North was made shortly before the upcoming inter-Korean military talks. The objectives of these two decisions seem clear. North Korea has always justified its development of nuclear weapons and missiles by claiming that the US has a “hostile policy” toward the North. The specific actions cited by the North are South Korea and the US’s joint military exercises and the US’s threat of a preemptive strike on the North. Essentially, South Korea and the US have used these two security pledges to North Korea to show their determination to get rid of North Korea’s excuses for developing nuclear weapons and missiles and to set the mood for negotiations aimed at denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula. During Trump’s telephone conversation with Moon, he denied the accuracy of a report in the Wall Street Journal claiming that the US was considering a military strike on the North and declared that the US would not take military action against the North as long as inter-Korean dialogue continued. This made it even clearer that Trump means to find a peaceful solution through direct dialogue with North Korea, presuming that the North does not carry out additional nuclear weapon or missile tests and participates in denuclearization talks. The problem is that the two pillars of the Pyeongchang Initiative – namely, inter-Korean dialogue and South Korea and the US’s two security pledges to North Korea – all have preset timelines and conditions. The delay of the joint military exercises is only valid until the closing ceremonies of the Olympics and Paralympics. The US’s pledge to halt military action against the North is only valid as long as North and South Korea are engaged in dialogue. Pyeongchang Initiative is a provisional arrangement for peace The military exercises delayed by South Korea and the US could be held as early as mid-April. A senior official at the Blue House said that “the agreement was to delay the joint military exercises, not to cancel them.” This means that, if North Korea-US dialogue is unable to gain traction before the joint military exercises resume, the Korean Peninsula could end up in an even worse standoff than before. In such an event, there is little reason for optimism about the prospects of inter-Korean dialogue maintaining momentum. At least for now, the Pyeongchang Initiative is only a provisional arrangement for peace. “This opportunity has an expiration date. There really needs to be some kind of progress [in North Korea-US relations] in the 100 days before the military exercises resume in April,” said Kim Jun-hyeong, a professor at Handong Global University. In the end, it’s important to make the Pyeongchang Initiative sustainable. “In order to maintain the momentum for peace even after the Olympics, the Pyeongchang Initiative will at least need to be augmented with bilateral dialogue between North Korea and the US seeking a solution to the North Korean nuclear issue along with a multilateral security system that can contribute to the formation of an arrangement for peace on the Korean Peninsula,” said Koo Kab-woo, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies. The Trump administration, which adopted the North Korean policy of “maximum pressure and engagement” but focused entirely on “pressure” last year, claims that inter-Korean dialogue was made possible by pressure imposed by the US. Trump himself said that he completely supports the Moon administration’s efforts to engage in dialogue with the North. “The US’s policy toward North Korea is changing little by little. As inter-Korean dialogue is reorienting [Korean Peninsula affairs] toward dialogue, President Trump’s message has begun to shift in nature,” said Kim Hyeon-uk, a professor at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy. Inter-Korean talks must be a launchpad for US-North Korea dialogue The ultimate implication here is that it’s even more critical for the Moon administration to make an effort for the restoration of inter-Korean relations to serve as a launchpad for North Korea-US dialogue. For its part, the North needs to offer a response to South Korea and the US’s two security pledges. If the North were to make a provisional moratorium on nuclear weapon and missile tests, postponing these until after the Olympics and Paralympics, it would further increase the likelihood of dialogue with the US. In addition to the existing Six-Party Talks aimed at resolving the North Korean nuclear issue, a four-party arrangement between North Korea and China on the one hand and South Korea and the US on the other has been proposed as a possible multilateral security regime. It’s also necessary to find a “conscientious mediator” that can work for peace on the Korean Peninsula as the EU did when the US and Iran reached a breakthrough in their nuclear talks or as Canada did when the US and Cuba restored diplomatic relations. In a statement released after a closed-door briefing on inter-Korean talks on Jan. 10, the UN Security Council welcomed the talks, concluding that they have reduced tensions on the Korean Peninsula and increased the possibility of building trust that can lead toward denuclearization. By Jung In-hwan, Kim Ji-eun, and Seong Yeon-cheol, staff reporters Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]
