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President Moon Jae-in shakes hands with Kim Yo-jong, the first vice director of the central committee of the North Korean Workers‘ Party in front of a print with the Chinese character for “letter” created by artist Lee Cheol-soo at the Blue House on Feb. 10. (Blue House Photo Pool)
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Washington remains noncommittal on progress in inter-Korean relations
Affairs on the Korean Peninsula are in flux as the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics bring rapid progress in inter-Korean relations. Given the increasing likelihood of a third inter-Korean summit following North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s invitation for South Korean President Moon Jae-in to visit the North, attention is focusing on how the major regional powers will respond to these developments. The fact that Kim Jong-un has played the card of an inter-Korean summit – one of the most powerful cards at his disposal – shows how seriously he takes recent developments on the Korean Peninsula. If the military tensions and the “war of words” between North Korea and the US that escalated last year continue this year, even the North would be put in a tight spot, given the pressure and sanctions imposed by the international community. Kim’s choice of a summit, which would be the fastest way to fully restore inter-Korean relations, can be seen as signaling that North Korea will accept some degree of change in order to escape sanctions and pressure. North Korea-US relations are a decisive factor in the question of whether Moon and Kim will hold a summit. Given the current antagonism between North Korea and the US, the progress that can be made in inter-Korean relations is clearly limited. “The two previous inter-Korean summits were achieved when the three bilateral relationships on the Korean Peninsula [inter-Korean, South Korea-US and North Korea-US] were in a virtuous cycle,” said Kim Yeon-cheol, a professor at Inje University. This means that a summit cannot transform peninsula affairs unless South Korea is capable of arranging North Korea-US dialogue through steady cooperation with the US. The first inter-Korean summit in June 15, 2000, was made possible by the ongoing “Perry Process” led by former US Defense Secretary William Perry, who visited North Korea in May 1999 as a special envoy for former US President Bill Clinton. The second summit in Oct. 4, 2007, was able to get off the ground because of the Feb. 13 agreement reached in the Six-Party Talks held that February, which described the principle of “action for action” for resolving the North Korean nuclear issue. For now, the Trump administration remains noncommittal. On Feb. 10, the day after Moon met with North Korea’s high-ranking delegation, the White House said it was in close contact with South Korea to ensure a consistent response. The only word from the Defense Department was that it was working on a statement. This means that even the Trump administration is weighing its options. A Feb. 10 article by a reporter covering the White House quoted a senior US government official as saying that Moon accepting North Korea’s invitation would definitely not impair the message sent to North Korea during Vice President Mike Pence’s visit to South Korea over the past week. This remark appears to mean that the US has no reason to object to improving inter-Korean relations if that helps resolve the North Korean nuclear issue. ”Conditions” for summit referenced by Moon will be key factor in coming months The key factor can be described as the “conditions” that Moon mentioned during his meeting with the North Korean delegation. A visit to the North by US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson or a meeting between high-level North Korean and American officials in a third country could pave the way for Moon to visit Pyongyang. If North Korea were to publicly declare its willingness to temporarily suspend nuclear and missile tests or to allow Tillerson to visit the North, it could give more latitude to officials in the State Department and elsewhere in the Trump administration who are in favor of negotiating with the North. The Japanese also appear to be extremely wary about the possibility of an inter-Korean summit taking place. “Japan and South Korea both responded to North Korea’s policy of reconciliation, but the North ultimately continued its development of nuclear weapons and missiles. I think that the South Korean government will make a definite response,” Japanese Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera said on Feb. 10. Moving forward, Japan seems likely to work with the US to check the mood for inter-Korean dialogue.
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President Moon Jae-in (left) cheers the unified Korean women’s hockey team along with IOC President Thomas Bach, Kim Yong-nam, the president of the Presidium of the North Korean Supreme People‘s Assembly, and Kim Yo-jong, the first vice director of the central committee of the North Korean Workers‘ Party (KWP) prior to the team’s game against Switzerland at the Gangneung Ice Arena on Feb. 10. (Blue House Photo Pool)
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