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South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un smile with cracking open a chocolate dome with a wooden hammer during the summit’s welcoming ceremony at the House of Peace in Panmunjeom on Apr. 27, an act that symbolized the opening of the Korean “people’s spring.” (Photo pool)
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Three- or four-party talks likely to be held for establishing permanent peace regime on Korean Peninsula
US President Donald Trump reportedly expressed support for the South and North Korean leaders’ agreement on a declaration ending the Korean War during a telephone conversation with South Korean President Moon Jae-in on the evening of Apr. 28. The message from Trump suggests a positive outlook for the declaration to come within 2018, along with three- or four-party talks on the establishment of a permanent peace regime. While the format will be one where Pyongyang and Washington communicate indirectly through Seoul, it reads as a confirmation that the three main parties – South and North Korea and the US – are all on the same page. The push to declare the war’s end within 2018 is expected to gain even more momentum once North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and Trump reaffirm plans to pursue it directly during their summit scheduled for late May. While no official position has been confirmed from China – which would also become a direct party if the format is expanded to quadrilateral meetings – its open support for the Korean Peninsula’s “peace and stability” in the past suggests it has no reason to oppose the move. Trump made several remarks about ending the Korean War prior to the inter-Korean summit on Apr. 27. In an Apr. 17 summit with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, he said South and North Korea “have my blessing to discuss the end of the war.” Just after the Apr. 27 summit, he tweeted, “KOREAN WAR TO END!” The remarks hint that Trump was already aware that a declaration of the Korean War’s end would be discussed and agreed upon at the inter-Korean summit. They are also being interpreted as evidence that the agreement in the Apr. 27 Panmunjeom Declaration to declare an end to the war within the year was reached after close coordination between South Korea and the US. A framework linking the declaration of the Korean War’s end and adoption of a peace agreement with a solution to the North Korean nuclear issue dates all the way back to the Kim Dae-jung (1998–2003) and Roh Moo-hyun (2003–08) administrations. For a long time, however, North Korea did not regard the South as a party to what it described as an “issue between North Korea and the US.” For its part, the US countered that there would be no declaration or peace agreement without the South’s involvement. But an improvement in North Korea-US relations due to active mediation by the Kim administration led to the Oct. 2000 adoption of a joint communique stating their agreement that “there are a variety of available means, including Four Party talks, to . . . formally end the Korean War by replacing the 1953 Armistice Agreement with permanent peace arrangements.” In a Nov. 2006 South Korea-US summit with Roh, then-US President George W. Bush mentioned the possibility of signing a three-party peace agreement contingent on North Korea’s denuclearization, saying that wanted to sign the agreement with Kim Jong-il to bring the Korean War to a complete end. As inter-Korean discussions progressed, the South and North Korean leaders reached an agreement in their October 4 Summit Declaration the following year to cooperate toward “having the leaders of the three or four parties directly concerned to convene on the Peninsula and declare an end to the war.” Details for ending war still up in the air The armistice agreement signed on July 27, 1953, was a military agreement suspending hostilities in the Korean War. In it, the two parties agreed to a “cease-fire.” Achieving more than a cease-fire – in other words, returning the situation to the pre-war peace – would require a declaration of the war’s end as a political agreement in terms of stipulating legal responsibilities and obligations and establishing the future relationships of the formerly hostile parties. It would also require a peace agreement. Indeed, the 19 countries that fought in the Korean War met in 1954 for political negotiations in Geneva but were unable to reach an agreement. The armistice system put in place in 1953 is something that needs to be overcome first and foremost as a relic of the Cold War. At the same time, it is also seen as limited in its effectiveness to efficiently managing the armistice, having failed to prevent localized clashes between the South and North over the past 65 years. It is not clear for now just what terms a declaration of the Korean War’s end would contain. Materials provided by Seoul after the inter-Korean summit suggested a general process in which three or four parties meet during the year to declare the war over, followed by full-scale efforts to sign a peace agreement and establish a permanent peace regime. Based on that timeline, the declaration is likely to focus more on expressing the political commitment to actively pursuing a peace regime to replace the armistice system, rather than political, military, and legal specifics on the handling of the war’s conclusion. Some analysts have also mentioned the possibility the declaration may be timed for July 27, which marks the 65th anniversary of the armistice agreement. After that, the three or four parties are expected to pursue peace agreement negotiations and other efforts linked to progress in resolving the North Korean nuclear issue. “The peace agreement matter will take some time, since it involves not just military issues concerning controls on South and North Korean armament or the standing and character of US Forces Korea, but also international political variables concerning other countries involved in Korean Peninsula issues, including the normalization of North Korea-US relations,” a senior South Korean government official predicted. By Park Byong-su, senior staff writer Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]
