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Moon Chung-in, a distinguished professor emeritus at Yonsei University and President Moon Jae-in’s special advisor on foreign affairs and national security, gives a keynote speech for a May 25 panel discussion on “The Inter-Korean Talks and the Future of the Korean Peninsula” organized at the National Assembly members’ hall by the Naenara Institute and Democratic Party lawmaker Woo Sang-ho. (Kim Kyu-nam, staff writer)
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Professor Moon Chung-in says he is “not pessimistic” even after summit’s cancellation
Moon Chung-in, a distinguished professor emeritus at Yonsei University and President Moon Jae-in’s special advisor on foreign affairs and national security, said he was “not pessimistic” after US President Donald Trump’s announcement canceling a planned North Korea-US summit on June 12. “Given the positive results resuming the talks could produce ahead of the US midterm elections in November, I think President Trump will resume dialogue with the North shortly,” Moon predicted. On the timeline for resuming summit preparations, Moon noted, “The Panmunjeom Declaration [issued after an Apr. 27 inter-Korean summit] states that a declaration of the [Korean] war’s end is to be made within the year, and even President Trump has agreed with declaring the war over.” “Neither the US nor North Korea has anything to gain from delaying things. I think [preparations] will resume faster than we expect while the iron is still hot,” he added. Moon’s remarks came in a keynote speech for a May 25 panel discussion on “The Inter-Korean Talks and the Future of the Korean Peninsula” organized at the National Assembly members’ hall by the Naenara Institute and Democratic Party lawmaker Woo Sang-ho. “I would have been worried if this sort of thing had happened after a negotiation breakthrough had been achieved while North Korea was still conducting nuclear tests and test-launching missiles,” he explained. “But it happened in a positive context with good signals from the North, including the release of three detained Korean-Americans and the voluntary, preemptive closing of the Punggye Village nuclear test ground,” he added. “So, I’m optimistic.” As bases for his optimism, Moon noted that Trump had written in his letter to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un that he should “not hesitate to call me or write” if he changed his mind, saying shortly afterwards in a White House press conference that he was willing to have dialogue with Pyongyang at any time; that the line connecting US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Workers’ Party of Korea vice chairman and United Front Department director Kim Yong-chol remains alive, with the US selecting White House secretariat deputy directors and security office assistant aides to serve as preliminary contact staff as a channel that would allow dialogue to resume quickly with a signal from the leaders; and that the outlines of the so-called “Trump model” have begun coming into focus. Elements of the Trump formula On the issue of the “Trump formula,” Moon noted, “Nobody has given an answer, but the contours emerged with President Moon Jae-in’s US visit on May 22.” He proceeded to go through a list of points, noting that Trump, who had previously insisted on an “all in one” denuclearization deal, appeared for the first time talking about a “phase-in” approach in a Fox TV interview; that after previously calling for denuclearization ahead of any rewards, Trump said in a May 22 meeting with President Moon that the US are willing to offer regime security guarantees, provide economic support, declare the end of the Korean War, and sign a peace agreement if North Korea showed concrete steps toward denuclearization, which shared some commonalities with the “step-by-step, simultaneous exchange” approach favored by North Korea; and that when he himself asked senior White House officials in an early May visit to Washington whether preparations for the summit were behind due to the lack of time, he was assured that the “White House, State Department, and Energy Department are all making good progress with preparations.” “These appear to be the be the elements of the Trump formula,” he concluded. Moon went on to observe, “President Trump has backed out of the Iran nuclear agreement, and if things go badly with North Korea, he’ll have to contend with Iran and North Korea at the same time with the US midterm elections coming up in November.” “While he may have crossed a bridge of no return with Iran, there’s still room for resuming talks with North Korea and reach a positive outcome. Simply in terms of the US domestic political situation, I expect President Trump to resume dialogue shortly,” he added. Moon also offered his analysis on the reasons behind Trump’s abrupt cancellation of the June 12 North Korea-US summit. “Mutual failure at “message management” between North Korea and US “The surface reasons given in his letter were North Korea’s ‘tremendous anger’ and ‘open hostility,’ Based on reflection and press coverage, the agenda coordination [between the two sides] was apparently not working out,” he said. As regards factors behind Trump’s change of heart, Moon pointed to the two sides’ failure to coordinate on agenda items including whether North Korea would carry out complete, verifiable, and irreversible dismantlement (CVID) and whether rewards would follow or take place simultaneously with denuclearization; their mutual failure at “message management” with White House National Security Advisor John Bolton and Vice President Mike Pence’s references to the “Libyan model” and statements by First Vice Minister Kim Kye-gwan and Vice Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui criticizing the two; and the strong influence of hardliners Bolton and Peace, who view the conditions for a North Korea-US summit as being not yet right. “After the US gave the venue and time for the North Korea-US summit on May 11, working-level discussions between the two sides didn’t take place properly,” Moon observed. “President Trump must have thought it would be a good idea to take a bit of time to coordinate the agenda with North Korea before having the summit, and I suspect his advisors said something along those lines,” he added. “According to US press reporters, President Trump sent a message to North Korea proposing to hold the summit in Singapore and asking to have preliminary working-level discussions the following week. When the North didn’t show up, it raised questions in the US’s mind about how committed North Korea reality is to participating in dialogue.” Moon offered his own ideas on how the “curveball” thrown by the summit cancellation announcement should be handled. “North Korea will need to be the first to exercise restraint,” he cautioned. “Fortunately, the statement today from Kim Kye-gwan had a refined tone– and that was a statement entrusted to him by Chairman Kim Jong-un,” he added. Moon rated the statement as a positive development, saying that it “expressed commitment to dialogue with the US strongly and in refined terms.” Moon was referring to a statement issued by Kim Kye-gwan earlier that morning that was seen as expressing Pyongyang’s intent to resume preparations for the summit with the US. “[W]e, broad-minded and open all the time, have the willingness to offer the U.S. side time and opportunity,” Kim wrote in the statement. “President Moon needs to work actively to get things back on track” Moon also called for a proactive role from South Korean President Moon Jae-in. “President Moon needs to work actively to get things back on track, talking to Chairman Kim Jong-un and then using the results of that to talk to President Trump,” he said. “What we’ve achieved so far is thanks to President Moon’s contributions.” The special advisor also said President Moon “needs to play that role even if there are setbacks in the short term.” Moon further proposed empowering the South Korean government in the process. “President Trump is a real estate man – if the price wasn’t right for him, he would give people his card and say, ‘Call me when you think it over.’ This is similar to that,” he explained. “Right now, [North Korea and the US] aren’t on the same page and are exchanging hostile words, and he’s saying North Korea should contact him when they change their minds.” Moon went to note that Trump “has hosted reality shows in the past, and this sort of short, dramatic thing seems like an element from a reality show performer.” “Ever since President Trump cancelled [the summit], the White House has been sending the message all around that things will ‘work out’ and that the summit ‘could take place soon,’” Moon said. “There’s nothing to be disappointed about in that. We should be hopeful,” he suggested. “Be patient, and give support to the South Korean government.” By Kim Kyu-nam, staff writer Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]
