Resumption of correspondence between Kim and Trump creates new momentum

US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un

Questions arise about possibility of second North Korea-US summit

The resumption of personal correspondence between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un appears to have created fresh momentum in the deadlocked denuclearization talks between the two countries. With the two leaders underscoring their commitment to direct dialogue on the occasion of the repatriation of the remains of American service members, the next question is whether this will bring about a change in circumstances, such as a second summit.

On Aug. 2, the White House disclosed that Kim had sent Trump a third personal letter and that Trump had replied. White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said that Trump received a letter from Kim on Aug. 1 and written a reply that “will be delivered shortly.”

When reporters asked what was written in the letters being exchanged, Sanders said, “The letters addressed their commitment from their joint statement that was made at the Singapore summit. And they’re going to continue working together towards complete and total denuclearization.” Sanders did not disclose how Kim and Trump’s letters were delivered.

The White House had announced the delivery of Kim’s letter on Aug. 1, the day that 55 cases of the remains of US soldiers who died during the Korean War reached the US. But the letter apparently was delivered through a separate channel from those remains. Early in the morning on Aug. 2, just a few hours after the remains arrived in Hawaii, Trump tweeted, “Thank you for your nice letter - l look forward to seeing you soon!”

These letters were exchanged amid a breakdown in the deliberations held by North Korea and the US since the Singapore summit on June 12 with the goal of implementing the agreements reached during that summit, including the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. North Korea emphasizes that declaring the end of the Korean War must be the first step in improving bilateral relations and providing security assurances for the regime, while the US has held to the stance that “significant movement” toward denuclearization must come first.

US President Donald Trump revealed the letter he received from North Korean leader Kim Jong-un on Aug. 1, adding “I look forward to seeing you soon!” in regards to his next potential meeting with Kim. (US President Trump’s Twitter account)

Unyielding stance of US towards denuclearization continues

During a press conference on Aug. 2, Harry Harris, the new US ambassador to South Korea, said that the US wants North Korea to submit a list of its nuclear facilities before the war can be brought to an official end. Because of this disagreement, there have been continuing predictions that this stalemate may drag on.

While en route to Singapore to attend the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) on Aug. 3, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said, “Chairman Kim made a commitment to denuclearize. The world demanded that [North Korea] do so in the UN Security Council resolutions [but] they are behaving in a manner inconsistent with that.”

“We still have a ways to go to achieve the ultimate outcome we're looking for,” Pompeo added.

Pompeo was responding to a question about press reports and US government official comments claiming that North Korea is still making nuclear materials and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).

Use of top-down communication to break through skepticism

Under these circumstances, attention is focusing on whether the “top down” method of Kim and Trump trading letters can give a fresh boost to dialogue and serve as the opportunity to shift to a new phase. This would not be the first time that the two leaders have used top-down communication to break through the skepticism of mainstream American society toward the possibility of resolving the North Korean nuclear issue.

When Trump announced that he was calling off the North Korea-US summit on May 24, Kim Jong-un sent Kim Yong-chol, vice chairman of the Workers' Party of North Korea (WPK) and director of the WPK United Front Department, to the White House to deliver his first personal letter to Trump. Kim’s second letter was delivered when Pompeo visited Pyongyang on July 6 and 7. Trump made that letter public on July 12 in an attempt to counter criticism that Pompeo had returned from his visit empty-handed.

“The very fact that the two leaders are exchanging letters is encouraging, considering that they personally created the mood for dialogue,” a diplomatic source in Washington observed.

The focus has now shifted to whether the two leaders can untie these tangled threads through a second summit. Trump responded to Kim’s third letter by tweeting, “l look forward to seeing you soon!” This was apparently because Kim had once again mentioned another summit, after previously expressing his anticipation about “the next summit” in his second letter. Since both leaders have important political events on the horizon -- Trump has midterm elections coming up in November while Kim has North Korea’s government foundation day on Sept. 9 – they need some tangible achievements on the diplomatic front.

The most likely time to sit down together would be the UN General Assembly, taking place in New York in September. Sanders said that Trump is “certainly open to that discussion” – referring to a second summit – but that no meeting “is currently locked in or finalized.”

The problem is how to create the conditions for such a meeting. Whereas the first summit was mostly “declaratory” in function, confirming North Korea commitment to the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, the second summit needs to achieve something more concrete than that.

Joel Wit, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, told the Wall Street Journal that it’s not surprising that the two sides are maximizing their public demands while trying to minimize the price they have to pay. The key is to find the “sweet spot” that can satisfy both sides, Wit said.

　

By Hwang Joon-bum, Washington correspondent

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