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South Koreans hang up Korean Peninsula flags on Unification Bridge in Paju, Gyeonggi Province, on Apr. 25, two days before the first summit between South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. (Kim Bong-gyu, staff photographer)
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Seoul’s role as mediator is now more crucial than ever
A battle of wills has been intensifying between North Korea and the US since their Singapore summit on June 12, with the two sides failing to make progress in their talks on denuclearization and normalization of diplomatic relations as each demands “prior action” from the other. Now Washington is turning up the pressure on Pyongyang with the recent cancellation of a planned fourth North Korea visit by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and remarks by Secretary of Defense James Mattis on Aug. 28 regarding the continuation of joint South Korea-US military exercises. Since the summit, North Korea and the US have been in tense opposition, respectively insisting on an end-of-war declaration and the disclosure of a list of nuclear facilities and weapons before proceeding into the follow-up negotiations agreed upon by their leaders for denuclearization and normalization of diplomatic relations. But even as they have ramped up the pressure, both sides have consistently sent the message that the trust between their leaders still stands. This has been seen as signaling that neither side intends to upset the apple cart with negotiations that have proceeded from the outset under a “top-down” approach between the leaders. So despite a “secret letter” from Workers’ Party of Korea Vice Chairman Kim Yong-chol purportedly expressing displeasure with Washington’s attitude, as well as the series of pressure tactics the US has adopted, the situation lends credence to speculation that conditions in North Korea-US relations and the political situation on the Korean Peninsula could change depending on how the two sides use the major political events on the September schedule. Speaking about the cancellation of Pompeo’s trip at an Aug. 29 plenary session of the National Assembly Special Committee on Budget and Accounts, Minister of Foreign Affairs Kang Kyung-wha insisted that the “momentum of dialogue between North Korea and the US has continued.” “Depending on how the situation processes, another North Korea visit by the US Secretary of State could be pursued,” she stressed. Pompeo also left the possibility open, remarking on Aug. 28 that his Pyongyang visit had been “delay[ed].” How much weight do Mattis’s comments hold? Responding to claims that the turbulence between Pyongyang and Washington could affect the holding of an inter-Korean summit in Pyongyang during September, Blue House spokesperson Kim Eui-kyum stressed that Seoul “remains unwavering on [the pursuit of] the inter-Korean summit.” “With the current deadlock between North Korea and the US, we see the inter-Korean summit as now holding a greater role in terms of resolving the issue and overcoming the impasse,” he said. According to the Blue House, Mattis’s remarks should not be seen as indicating a change in the US’s stance. “With North Korea showing definite good faith with measures such as its dismantlement of the Punggye nuclear test site, it doesn’t seem right for the US to be breaking out the military option,” a Blue House senior official said. Another Blue House senior official said, “Judging from the way the US State Department and Pentagon have played down the significance [of his remarks], Secretary Mattis appears to have been speaking off the cuff.” “This should be seen as indicating a change in strategy for the US,” the official argued. A government official familiar with the situation in North Korea-US relations called the current impasse “one of the hurdles you have to clear when starting full-scale denuclearization talks.” “I think we’re going to need to focus our attention on all the different things scheduled for September,” the official added. Indeed, many major political events are on the calendar for September, including the 70th anniversary of the North Korean government’s foundation on Sept. 9, a scheduled North Korea visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping, and a UN General Assembly meeting opening on Sept. 18 that has been mentioned as a possible venue for an inter-Korean summit and the second North Korea-US summit. The Moon Jae-in administration had been focusing on its efforts on the possible adoption of a trilateral or quadrilateral (with China) end-of-war declaration at the UN General Assembly following a planned September inter-Korean summit in the event that Pompeo’s fourth North Korea visit in late August had resulted in some kind of breakthrough – a plan that failed to come off as hoped. Trump’s new ball game Some analysts see the US’s recent actions as representing President Donald Trump’s attempt to shake things up and start a new “ball game” ahead of the fateful month of September. “We have no way of knowing if things are going to turn out positively, but we can look at it as an opportunity,” a South Korean government official said. North Korea unlikely to give direct response for time being Pyongyang appears unlikely to respond directly for the time being, due to its reluctance to give the appearance of frictions with the US ahead of the September 9 holiday, which leader Kim Jong-un referred to as an event “of real significance for the great people” in his New Year’s address. “North Korea is in caution mode at the moment,” said Institute for National Security Strategy senior research fellow Cho Sung-ryul. “Since it could very well return to its hardline mood after the September 9 holiday, the Moon Jae-in administration will need to take action and persuade North Korea before then,” he suggested. “It’s a time that calls for proactive efforts from the Moon administration [to break through the situation], including personal visits to North Korea by major officials in the form of summit preparations,” he added. The US-China factor Beijing, which Trump has pointed to as being at fault for the North Korea-US impasse, appears likely to weigh the potential negative impact on the US-China trade war if Xi visits North Korea around the time of the Sept. 9 holiday. “If the conversation was going well between North Korea and the US, President Xi would have no problems visiting North Korea for Sept. 9, but it could be a problem for him to go under the current situation,” said Dongguk University professor Koh Yu-hwan. Koh also suggested Trump’s recent behavior in connection with North Korea “could be influenced by calculations reflecting the China variable and the upcoming November midterm elections in the US.” A South Korean government official predicted, “The momentum could start petering out in October if there are no results in September, so South and North Korea, the US, and China are all going to try to seize a chance for victory during September.” By Kim Ji-eun, staff reporter Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]
