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US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un during the former’s second visit to North Korea on May 9. (KCNA)
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Observers speculate over how meeting could draw out corresponding measures from US
On Oct. 7, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will be visiting Pyongyang to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. The big question is whether their meeting will lead to the rough outline of a breakthrough deal in which the North would trade initial steps toward denuclearization for corresponding measures from the US, a matter that has paralyzed the two sides’ denuclearization talks. A senior official at the Blue House said “it’s encouraging that [Pompeo’s] visit is taking place earlier than expected.” If North Korea and the US reach a significant agreement, the official said, “the second North Korea-US summit would be more likely to take place before the midterm elections in the US on Nov. 6.” During the daily press briefing on Oct. 2, US State Department Spokesperson Heather Nauert announced that Pompeo will be visiting Asia, traveling “to Japan, North Korea, the Republic of Korea, and China from October 6th to the 8th.” Pompeo will be visiting Tokyo from Oct. 6 to 7 to meet Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Foreign Minister Taro Kono and then making a day trip to Pyongyang on Oct. 7 to meet Kim Jong-un, Nauert explained. It’s notable that Nauert explicitly stated that Pompeo would be meeting Kim, considering that Pompeo returned empty-handed from his third trip to the North in early July. During a subsequent two-day visit to Seoul, Pompeo will be meeting South Korean President Moon Jae-in and Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha, and on Oct. 8, he will be heading to Beijing to discuss bilateral, regional and international issues with his Chinese “counterpart.” US Special Representative for North Korea Stephen Biegun told reporters on the same day that he would be accompanying Pompeo on his trip to East Asia, including the stop in North Korea. With the scheduling of Pompeo’s fourth trip to North Korea, denuclearization talks between North Korea and the US appear to be picking up speed once again. On Aug. 24, Trump canceled Pompeo’s scheduled trip to the North because he didn’t feel that enough progress had been made in denuclearization negotiations. In regard to the significance of Pompeo’s trip,” Nauert said, “I think it shows forward progress and momentum [in the North Korea-US negotiations] that the Secretary is making his fourth trip back in less than a year. [. . .] Of course, we have quite a ways to go, but we look forward to the next steps in this conversation.” Pompeo’s visit to North Korea was arranged after interaction on multiple levels and from multiple angles aimed at restarting North Korea-US dialogue. In the Pyongyang Declaration that was announced during the third inter-Korean summit on Sept. 19, Kim declared his intention to permanently close the Yongbyon nuclear complex – a symbol of the North’s nuclear development – provided that the US takes corresponding measures. The US immediately welcomed this and declared that it would take steps to resume dialogue with the North. During a summit with Moon on Sept. 24, Trump said that his second summit with North Korea would take place before long. In the ensuing dialogue between North Korea and the US, Pompeo met with North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong-ho in New York on Sept. 26 and accepted Kim’s invitation to visit the North. During this process, Trump gushed about a personal letter from Kim being a “beautiful piece of art” and even said that the two “fell in love.” Considering that Pompeo’s fourth visit to North Korea was rescheduled during this process, it’s likely that the two sides have narrowed their differences about their competing demands for North Korea to take the initial steps toward denuclearization on the one hand and for the US to take corresponding measures, such as officially declaring the end of the Korean War, on the other. The general outlines of the package that North Korea and the US will bring to the negotiating table are already in view. In the Pyongyang Declaration, North Korea expressed its intentions to shut down the Sohae Satellite Launching Station in Tongchang Village and the Yongbyon nuclear complex. Prospects for end-of-war declaration On Sept. 23, Pompeo said that the US was in dialogue with North Korea about specific nuclear facilities and weapon systems. The corresponding measures that North Korea is demanding in exchange are the end-of-war declaration and the relaxation of sanctions, both of which Ri Yong-ho mentioned in his speech before the UN General Assembly. According to a former senior official in the South Korean government, the fixed date of Pompeo’s visit to North Korea means that North Korea and the US have reached some kind of compromise. “Since President Moon has helped [Trump] understand that the end-of-war declaration is a political declaration, and not a peace treaty, I don’t think the end-of-war declaration will be a problem,” said Kim Joon-hyung, professor at Handong Global University. During a press conference at the State Department on Oct. 3, Pompeo said he is “very happy to be going back” and that he expects his visit to North Korea will serve as an opportunity not only to prepare for a second summit between Trump and Kim but also to pave the way toward denuclearization. The US State Department is also offering an optimistic forecast. When asked whether North Korea had taken any particular action that made Pompeo feel the trip would be productive, Nauert said, “Obviously these conversations are going in the right direction, and we feel confident enough to hop on a plane to head there to continue the conversations.” Likelihood of second summit discussion There’s likely to be a detailed discussion of a second summit between Trump and Kim during Pompeo’s visit to North Korea. “If overall progress is reached on the roadmap and timetable for denuclearization, Pompeo could also get into the specifics of the timing and location of the second North Korea-US summit in his meeting with Kim,” said Cho Sung-ryul, senior research fellow for the Institute for National Security Strategy. The Blue House has apparently been straining to draw a roadmap for what comes after Pompeo’s fourth visit to North Korea. “There’s obviously a difference in perspectives between North Korea and the US, so it’s still uncertain how much progress will be achieved by Pompeo. I’d thought [the North Korea-US summit] was likely to take place after the midterm elections, but now that [Pompeo’s visit to the North] has been moved forward [more than expected], I think the chances of the summit taking place before the midterm elections have increased, relatively speaking,” a senior Blue House official said. “The end-of-war declaration will take place at some point [after Kim and Trump meet], and it would probably make sense for Kim Jong-un’s return visit to Seoul to take place after the end-of-war declaration,” the official said. This explanation suggests that the Blue House’s envisioned roadmap goes in this order: the second North Korea-US summit, the end-of-war declaration and Kim paying a return visit to Seoul. In an interview with Fox News last month, Moon said that corresponding measures by the US could include establishing a liaison office in Pyongyang, exchanging economic inspection teams and providing humanitarian support. The Blue House distanced itself from predictions that the timing and location of the second North Korea-US summit would be confirmed during Pompeo’s trip to the North. “If that happens, it would be a major coup, but I don’t think it will happen this time,” said a Blue House official. Moon is expected to meet Pompeo on Oct. 8. “We’ll adjust to Pompeo’s schedule in Pyongyang, but precedent suggests that Pompeo will get in [to Seoul] late in the evening, and we expect the meeting will take place on Oct. 8.” By Hwang Joon-bum, Washington correspondent, and Seong Yeon-cheol and Kim Ji-eun, staff reporters Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]
