[News analysis] Will Kim Jong-un visit S. Korea before the end of the year?

The Korean Central News Agency covered North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s inspection of military-affiliated marine businesses in the East Sea region on Dec. 1. (Yonhap News)

The factors surrounding the N. Korean leader’s potential Seoul visit within 2018

South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s emphasis on the importance of a reciprocal visit to Seoul within the year by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and the positive views expressed on the issue by the South Korean and US leaders are arousing speculation on what choice Kim will make.

With Pyongyang and Washington currently bogged down in their talks on denuclearization and normalization of relations, Kim is expected to focus on a number of factors as he weighs his decision – including prospects for a second North Korea-US summit, the practical results that could come out of a preceding inter-Korean summit, and opinion in South Korea regarding his visit.

Prospects for 2nd NK-US summit

With the possibility of a reciprocal visit by Kim in the near future emerging suddenly over the weekend, experts generally predicted it was likely to transpire. Noting the intransigence of US politicians and public opinion opposing negotiations with the North, many analysts predicted that North Korea’s concessions in terms of additional denuclearization measures would need to yield concessions from the US in the form of corresponding measures for US President Donald Trump to show flexibility and establish momentum for a second North Korea-US summit.

Under this scenario, Kim is expected to present additional measures during his Seoul visit along the same lines as his pledge during the third inter-Korean summit to allow inspections and conditionally dismantle major nuclear and missile facilities at the villages of Tongchang and Yongbyon.

With Kim focusing his efforts on the economy since a decision last April to focus on a strategic course of “focusing energies on building a socialist economy,” the desperate need for the loosening or lifting of sanctions is another factor contributing to the likelihood of a visit in the near future. On Dec. 1, North Korean news outlets reported on Kim’s visits to inspect three military-affiliated marine businesses in the East Sea region. As they were the first reports on Kim’s public activity in 13 days, they were taken by analysts as suggesting that he may have reached some conclusion.

The Blue House’s emphasis on the need for Kim to visit in the near future also has a specific context in terms of inter-Korean relations.

“At a time when a change in the US position can’t be viewed as a condition, it’s important to build trust between South and North Korea, whatever the political costs,” explained Soongsil University professor Lee Jung-chul.

Lee interpreted the Blue House’s push to have Kim visit as soon as possible as being “based on the conclusion that building trust between South and North is of paramount importance, regardless of what happens in North Korea-US relations.”

Koh Yu-hwan, professor at Dongguk University, offered a more skeptical take.

“While a Seoul visit [by Kim] is the right thing in terms of honoring the inter-Korean pledge, it’s not clear what kind of conclusion they can reach if he comes to Seoul without an answer from the US,” he said.

South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korea leader Kim Jong-un at the Paekhwawon Guest House in Pyongyang after signing the Pyongyang Joint Declaration on Sept. 19. (photo pool)

Possible visit outcomes

A major consideration will be what kind of substantive outcomes Seoul and Pyongyang will be able to achieve to suit a first-ever Seoul visit by a North Korean leader.

In terms of a minimum possible outcome, Kim stands to gain an image boost from a visit to Seoul.

“Even if there are some difficulties [with anti-North Korea demonstrations], the biggest thing is Kim showing himself to be a leader who is willing to venture into the lions’ den for the sake of peace on the Korean Peninsula and advancement in inter-Korean relations,” suggested Yang Moo-jin, professor at the University of North Korean studies.

“By visiting Seoul, he stands to establish a foundation for his image as the normal leader of a normal state, which he can then broaden into Washington and the UN headquarters,” Yang said.

Another response to Kim’s visit that may be considered is an active resumption of humanitarian aid to the North. Signs of change in international activities related to humanitarian aid have been in evidence, with Swedish Ambassador to the UN Olof Skoog recently mentioning the seriousness of the situation in North Korea and stressing the need for humanitarian assistance. But the attitude of the US – which reportedly balked at a request to waive bans on humanitarian items – remains a variable.

The biggest possible result would be a loosening of sanctions in areas related to North Korean livelihoods, but that is something the Moon administration would not be able to pursue independently.

Public opinion in the South

North Korean officials are reportedly concerned about the response to a visit by Kim in terms of South Korean public opinion. In his remarks on Dec. 1, Moon said, “I’m sure the things North Korea is most concerned about [with a visit to Seoul] are security and safety.”

Moon Chung-in, special presidential advisor for unification, foreign affairs and national security, previously noted that “everyone [in the North Korean administration] is opposed” to Kim visiting Seoul, adding that the decision was “entirely Chairman Kim’s own.”

Predecessor Kim Jong-il also agreed to visit Seoul at the time of the first inter-Korean summit in 2000, but the plans were ultimately abandoned due to issues concerning his security and the souring of North Korea-US relations.

“The stance of the opposition parties is of some importance here,” said Yang Moo-jin.

“This is a moment that calls for a generous stance from the opposition party leaders,” he added.

By Kim Ji-eun, staff reporter

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