[News analysis] What message will Xi deliver to Trump following Kim Jong-un’s visit?

This video grab taken from footage released by China Central Television (CCTV) on January 10, 2019 shows China‘‘s President Xi Jinping (R) talking to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Beijing on January 9, 2019.

Beijing unlikely to push for sanctions relaxation amid US-China trade talks

After a summit and dinner with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Jan. 8 and a breakfast with Xi on Jan. 9, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un set out on his journey back home. Amid expectations that Kim’s fourth visit to China will open the door to a second North Korea-US summit, the next focus of attention is the message from Kim that Xi will deliver to US President Donald Trump.

On Wednesday morning, Kim toured the factory of Tong Ren Tang, a producer of traditional Chinese medicine, located in the Beijing Economic and Technological Development Area (BDA). Afterward, Kim reportedly had lunch with Xi and his wife at the five-star Beijing Hotel. Kim’s personal train departed for North Korea at 2:10 that afternoon. During their summit, dinner and lunch on Tuesday and Wednesday, Kim and Xi reportedly had an in-depth discussion of affairs on the Korean Peninsula, including North Korea’s negotiations with the US, and ways to develop China and North Korea’s bilateral relations.

Now that Xi and Kim have had a chance to adjust their positions and Kim has wrapped up his fourth trip to China, the next question revolves around the message that Xi will deliver to Trump and to Xi’s role as a mediator. Shortly after Xi’s summit with Kim in Dalian in May 2018, he expressed his support for a North Korea-US summit during a phone call with Trump and China’s interest in being part of the process of finding a political solution to Korean Peninsula issues. Kim also appears to have given Xi a message to be delivered to the US.

From the US’ perspective, an additional and more tangible step toward denuclearization could move North Korea-US dialogue into high gear. If China pushes for relaxing sanctions on North Korea without providing a satisfactory quid pro quo, it could be met with pushback from the US. But considering that an amiable mood has been forming during the US-China trade talks since the end of 2018 and that there are also signs that they may cooperate on the North Korean issue, Xi is unlikely to defect from the sanctions camp. The US is apparently looking into compensating North Korea for its denuclearization measures by setting up a North Korea-US liaison office while leaving the economic sanctions in place.

In the sense that Kim visited China shortly after expressing his denuclearization and commitment to dialogue with the US in his New Year’s address, the ostensibly stalled train of dialogue between North Korea and the US is likely to start rolling again.

This video grab taken from footage released by China Central Television (CCTV) on January 10, 2019 shows China‘‘s President Xi Jinping (2nd R) greeting North Korean leader Kim Jong Un (2nd L), as Kim‘‘s wife Ri Sol Ju (L) and Xi‘‘s wife Peng Liyuan watch, in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on January 8, 2019. -

“North Korea and the US apparently continue to make contact behind the scenes. Since President Trump and Chairman Kim are firmly committed to this, I expect that preparatory meetings will be held before long,” South Korean Ambassador to the US Cho Yoon-je said during a meeting with South Korean correspondents in Washington, DC, on Wednesday.

“What’s definite is that Chairman Kim and North Korea want to sustain the phase of dialogue and negotiations,” Cho said on the topic of Kim’s New Year’s address. “I understand that the US is also firmly committed to keeping North Korea engaged in the process of dialogue and negotiations and to seeking progress on denuclearization and its relations with the North.”

Kim’s China visit possible signal that 2nd North Korea-US summit is approaching

American experts on the Korean Peninsula have also concluded that Kim’s visit to China is a signal that the second North Korea-US summit is getting closer.

“Through his visit to China, Chairman Kim was attempting to both get the green light from China about holding a second summit with President Trump and send President Trump a message that Chairman Kim holds the powerful China card in his hand,” said former US Special Representative for North Korea Policy Joseph Yun during a seminar held at the Korea Economic Institute in Washington on Tuesday. “I expect that the second North Korea-US summit will be held shortly, probably in late February or early March.”

The US is likely to move into action after fully determining the significance of Kim’s visit to China. This could lead to high-level talks between US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Workers’ Party of Korea Central Committee Vice Chairman Kim Yong-chol or working-level talks between US Special Representative for North Korea Stephen Biegun and North Korean Vice Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui. Another interesting possibility is Pompeo visiting Pyongyang.

By Hwang Joon-bum, Washington correspondent, and Kim Oi-hyun, Beijing correspondent

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