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Kim Chang-son, chief secretary of North Korea’s Secretariat of the State Affairs Commission, and his delegation visit the Ho Chi Minh Mausoleum in Hanoi on Feb. 20 in preparation for the second North Korea-US summit. (Yonhap News)
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Observers offer varying predictions regarding format and content of declaration
One of the possible corresponding measures from the US in response to North Korea’s denuclearization measures at the upcoming second North Korea-US summit is a declaration ending the Korean War. A political declaration declaring the end of the war on the Korean Peninsula previously surfaced as a key agenda item at the first summit in Singapore on June 12, 2018, after South and North Korea previously agreed in their Apr. 27 Panmunjom Declaration to “actively pursue trilateral meetings involving the two Koreas and the United States, or quadrilateral meetings involving the two Koreas, the United States and China with a view to declaring an end to the war and establishing a permanent and solid peace regime” within the year. Now Washington has made it official that the end-of-war declaration will be discussed at the upcoming summit in Hanoi. In an interview with Fox News, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said he “fully expect[s]” that US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un will “have a chance to talk about” ending the Korean War. US State Department Special Representative for North Korea Stephen Biegun also mentioned the issue of ending the war in a talk at Stanford University, saying that Trump was “ready to end this war.“ Analysts offered varying predictions on the form and content of the end-of-war declaration to be discussed at the summit. Some observers predicted Kim and Trump would include a reference to adopting an end-of-war declaration “at some point” and pursuing negotiations toward a peace regime in their joint declaration rather than making an outright declaration ending the war. Another possibility is a “peace statement” by the two sides in which they pledge to resolve their mutual antagonism and establish peaceful relations rather than explicitly declaring an end to the war. “The North Korea-US agreement is likely to include content regarding the resolution of antagonism and a move toward peace and future-oriented relations rather than language about an ‘end-of-war declaration,’” predicted a South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs official acquainted with the North Korea-US talks. The message suggests that different forms of articulating an end of to the Korean War are currently under examination. Another approach would be to pursue a three- or four-party approach to the two sides ending the war. One method that is reportedly under consideration would involve North Korea and the US first declaring an end to the war, which would then be reaffirmed by South and North Korea, positioning the three parties as agents. Also possible is a format in which four parties – South and North Korea, the US and China – take part after an initial declaration from North Korea and US. Some have suggested the respective foreign ministers may meet to declare an end to the war rather than the heads of state. “It may not necessarily be an approach where all the leaders of the different countries gather together to [issue a declaration],” said one South Korean government official. “They could show some flexibility in terms of the level of the declaration,” the official predicted. Ending war could be used as internal justification for denuclearization North Korea has made no mention of an end-of-war declaration recently. The focus of the corresponding measures it is calling for from the US has also shifted toward a loosening of sanctions. Pyongyang’s approach appears to be a reflection of the deadlock that arose in bilateral talks through its focus last year on an end-of-war declaration. But North Korea would also welcome such a declaration as a stepping stone toward replacing the Korean Peninsula’s armistice system with a peace regime. “An end-of-war declaration could be used as an internal justification in North Korea for urging denuclearization, and it could provide some momentum for progress with the inter-Korean military agreement – a process that necessarily includes the loosening and lifting of sanctions against the North,” said Professor Yang Moo-jin of the University of North Korean Studies. “The significance of an end-of-war declaration would be by no means small,” he added. Kim’s interest in achieving a peace regime on the peninsula was evident in his New Year address for 2019. There, he declared his intent to “actively promote multi-party negotiations for replacing the current ceasefire on the Korean peninsula with a peace mechanism.” North Korea is very likely to suggest an end-of-war declaration at the upcoming North Korea-US summit as an avenue toward achieving a peace regime on the peninsula. If the US agrees, this would broaden the declaration’s significance into part of negotiations toward a peace mechanism. Some observers have suggested Pyongyang could use an end-of-war declaration as a basis for demanding the withdrawal of US Forces Korea. But a South Korean Ministry of National Defense official said, “My understanding is that North Korea is not tying the end-of-war declaration to a USFK withdrawal either.” The South Korean government’s position is that the presence of USFK is based on the mutual defense treaty signed with the US in October 1953 and is unrelated to the end-of-war declaration issue. By Yoo Kang-moon, senior staff writer, and Park Min-hee, staff reporter Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]
