[News analysis] Why did Kim Jong-un choose to travel to Hanoi by train?

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un waves goodbye during his farewell ceremony before departing from Pyongyang Station by private train on his journey to Hanoi on Feb. 23. (Korea Central News Agency/Yonhap News)

Observers speculate emphasis on relationship with China behind decision to forgo air travel

North Korea’s Rodong Sinmun newspaper published a front-page story on Feb. 24 announcing that leader Kim Jong-un had departed Pyongyang Station by personal train the afternoon before to attend a meeting and second summit with US President Donald Trump in Hanoi on Feb. 27 and 28. The newspaper also reported Kim would be paying an “official friendly visit” to Vietnam at the invitation of Communist Party General Secretary and President Nguyen Phu Trong on an unspecified date.

Why did Kim decide to forgo air travel to make the journey by train? At 2,760km, the aviation distance from Pyongyang to Hanoi could be covered in five hours by private jet. Instead, Kim opted for a three-day train voyage stretching over 4,500km – 4,000km of them in China alone. The possibility does remain that Kim could divide his travel between the private train and the Chammae-1 state aircraft or travel by means of a Chinese high-speed train or private aircraft. But the circumstances to date suggest a strong possibility that his personal high-security train will be his chief means of transportation.

“Given the schedule of the North Korea-US summit and the time the train left Pyongyang, it appears very likely that Chairman Kim will be traveling [primarily] by personal train,” a South Korean government official said.

Kim’s decision to make the long journey by train also contrasts with the precedent set by grandfather and past North Korean leader Kim Il-sung, who effectively used private aircraft furnished by China for his two visits to Vietnam on Nov. 27–Dec. 3, 1958, and Nov. 8–16, 1964. The younger Kim’s insistence on taking three days rather than five hours to make the journey also clashes with his typical leadership style and its emphasis on a “global standard” and “practicality.”

Many observers are speculating that the decision to travel by train in spite of the expected outside criticisms of it as an “anachronism” reflected consideration of both convenience and the strategic message sent with the second North Korea-US summit. Most of all, the train journey reads as an attempt to underscore strategic cooperation between the self-professed “brain trust” between the North and China, while surveying Guangzhou and other bases for reform and openness in southern China and stressing the historical continuity between Kim and past leaders Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il.

Train journey not possible without full cooperation from Chinese leadership

Kim Jong-un‘s expected route from Pyongyang to Hanoi

To begin with, the train journey is not an option that could be taken without full-scale cooperation and support from the Chinese leadership under President Xi Jinping. China is currently in the middle of a “special transportation period” from Jan. 21 to Mar. 1, with some 300 million people in transit because of the Lunar New Year holiday. The airtight transportation controls by authorities are certain to spark complaints and objections from the Chinese public. The Chinese leadership’s willingness to shoulder that domestic political burden may itself be seen as evidence of the firm cooperation between Pyongyang and Beijing.

It also suggests the Xi administration determined the results to be “worth the trouble.” In Kim’s case, another factor in the decision to make the journey by train appears to be his aim to send the message that China has his back – one previously seen with the first summit in Singapore on June 12, when he opted to use a private aircraft provided by China rather than the North’s Chammae-1 state jet.

Full-scale support and cooperation from the Vietnamese administration are also essential for the train journey. In official terms, the cooperation among the three self-proclaimed socialist states of North Korea, China, and Vietnam could be billed as an example of “socialist solidarity.” If the reminder of cooperation with Beijing is a message meant for everyone, then the trilateral solidarity among social states could be used to send a message domestically – particularly to those at home concerned about where Kim’s denuclearization decision is leading.

Train route a potential expression of commitment to reforms and openness

Traveling by train, Kim Jong-un would need to pass through Tianjin, Wuhan, Changsha and Guangzhou before reaching Pingxiang on the Vietnamese border. Guangzhou in particular is considered a shining symbol of the reform and openness program devised and executed by Deng Xiaoping. In effect, the train journey could be seen as expression of commitment to reforms and openness by Kim, who has previously proclaimed a “focus on the economy.”

“There’s a possibility Chairman Kim could have a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping on his way back from Hanoi,” noted one source familiar with the situation. Kim previously held second and third summits with Xi around the time of the first North Korea-US summit last year (respectively in Dalian on May 7–8 and Beijing on June 19–20), and visited Beijing again for a fourth summit with Xi on Jan. 7–10.

By staging an event in the southern Chinese city of Guangzhou as part of his train journey, Kim could achieve the effect of carrying on the legacy of his grandfather and father while sending a message concerning reforms and openness. In domestic political terms, the very format of the summit and the use of a train have the effect of recalling the leadership of Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il. Kim Il-sung visited Guangzhou in November 1958, while Kim Jong-il paid a January 2006 visit to survey the base cities in Deng’s Southern Tour from Jan. 18 to Feb. 22, 1992, including Guangzhou, Zhuhai, Shenzhen and Wuhan. One difference is that while Kim Il-sung stopped in Vietnam during visits to China in 1958 and 1964, China is official a “stopover” for Kim Jong-un on his way to Hanoi. It remains to be seen which decision Kim will make, but a source predicted, “It won’t be easy for him to set up another opportunity to survey Guangzhou and other cities, so the chances of him stopping there this time are high.”

Possible signal of commitment to multilateral railway cooperation

Kim’s train journey could also be a way of signaling commitment to multilateral railway cooperation as an extension of the inter-Korean agreement on linking and modernizing railways and roads in the Apr. 27 Panmunjom Declaration and September Pyongyang Joint Declaration last year and South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s vision for an “East Asian rail community.” While some have suggested Kim is undertaking the train journey due to security concerns, that argument appears less persuasive. If security concerns were paramount, there would have been no cause for the Rodong Sinmun to immediately announce his private train’s departure from Pyongyang.

Other analysts see the train journey as a practical choice with a focus on convenience, including continuity in Kim’s duties as leader.

“Contrary to what people imagine, a private train is convenient for sleeping, meals, meetings and communication, which would allow Kim Jong-un to focus on preparing for his negotiations with President Trump,” said one source.

By Lee Je-hun, senior staff writer

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