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South Korean President Moon Jae-in and US President Donald Trump at the Blue House in November 2017. (Blue House photo pool)
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Two leaders expected to discuss ways of revamping North Korea-US dialogue
South Korean President Moon Jae-in left the country on Apr. 10 for a summit with US President Donald Trump, which will be held in Washington, DC, on Apr. 11. The summit is part of an effort to revive North Korea-US dialogue, which has been at a standstill since Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un returned from Hanoi, at the end of February, without an agreement. With the Blue House reportedly pushing for an inter-Korean summit after Moon’s visit to the US, the leaders of South and North Korea and the US are expected to engage in some intense top-down diplomacy with the hope of reaching a breakthrough in the post-Hanoi stalemate. One special aspect of this summit is that its outcome will be a message for Kim. According to diplomatic sources in Seoul and Washington who spoke with the Hankyoreh on Apr. 9, Moon and Trump will focus on reaffirming Trump’s commitment to dialogue with North Korea while also confirming that there are no cracks in South Korea’s alliance with the US. First of all, one source said, this summit shows that South Korea and the US are “working hand in glove.” The source noted the importance of reaffirming that “South Korea and the US are in the same boat,” in order to curb claims being made by some South Korean conservatives that the alliance is in crisis. When the Blue House and the White House announced the summit on Mar. 29, they both stressed that “strengthening the alliance” was a major part of the summit’s agenda. The White House even characterized the South Korea-US alliance as a “linchpin” of peace and safety on the Korean Peninsula and in the region. These gestures are also significant in that they empower the South Korean government to play a bigger role in North Korea-US dialogue. “That’s necessary if [Seoul] is to have more say regarding North Korea,” one source said. Key agenda items to include complete denuclearization and roadmap for achieving it The ultimate goal of the South Korea-US summit is to restore the momentum for North Korea-US dialogue. In other words, sources say, the summit will enable Trump to publicly demonstrate his commitment to meeting Kim again and allow the two leaders to send Kim a message urging him to resume dialogue. “In terms of the big picture, I think that President Trump will leave open the possibility of a third North Korea-US summit,” said Cho Sung-ryul, former senior research fellow for the Institute for National Security Strategy. In recent weeks, Trump has repeatedly said that he has a good relationship with Kim, while US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said he was confident that a third North Korea-US summit would be held. The summit is likely to also delve into concrete ways to resume North Korea-US dialogue. The key agenda items are the concept of complete denuclearization and a roadmap for getting there. A high-ranking official at the Blue House said that the two leaders will have an “in-depth discussion” of the roadmap for denuclearization. Considering that North Korea is insisting on a step-by-step solution and the US is holding to an all-in-one deal, Moon has a critical role to play in narrowing the gap between the two sides. During the February summit in Hanoi, Trump proposed to Kim a sweeping concept of denuclearization that even included North Korea shipping its nuclear arsenal and materials to the US. The solution being offered by the South Korean government can be summarized as a comprehensive deal with a gradual implementation, in which North Korea and the US agree on the final stage of denuclearization but move in stages toward denuclearization, with the US providing incentives along the way. It remains to be seen how Moon will convince Trump that an intermediary deal that is simply “good enough” might be more meaningful than his current all-or-nothing approach. Inter-Korean summit expected by Washington summit Although easing sanctions to enable the resumption of operations at the Kaesong Industrial Complex and tourism to Mt. Kumgang has been discussed as a possible way of mediating between North Korea and the US, that’s unlikely to be finalized during this summit, sources said, because of the US’ firm commitment to maintaining sanctions. Some predict that the South Korea-US summit will be followed by an inter-Korean summit. Those expectations were evident in the remarks by a high-ranking official at the Blue House, who noted that the first North Korea-US summit last year was on the verge of being scrapped when an inter-Korean summit was held at Panmunjom, saving the summit. By Hwang Joon-bum, Washington correspondent, and Kim Ji-eun and Seong Yeon-cheol, staff reporters Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]
