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US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un shake hands on the North Korean side of the Military Demarcation Line (MDL) in Panmunjom on June 30. (Kim Jung-hyo, staff photographer)
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Goal of talks to be drafting overall plan for denuclearization
On July 1, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced that working-level talks between North Korea and the US aimed at bringing about denuclearization and creating a peace regime may begin in the middle of this month. Momentum for resuming dialogue was restored through the historic meeting the day before between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump at Panmunjom, and the two sides appear to be hurriedly preparing for negotiations. Given the collapse of the summit in Hanoi this past February, the fate of these negotiations will depend upon how much leeway they allow on their current positions. Importantly, the Panmunjom summit has confirmed that oversight of North Korea’s negotiations with the US has passed from the Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK) United Front Department to the Foreign Ministry. In a meeting with reporters at Osan Air Base after Kim and Trump’s summit at Panmunjom on June 30, Pompeo said that the US would have “the foreign ministry as our counterpart.” In related matters, North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong-ho was the only other person to attend Kim and Trump’s meeting at Freedom House at Panmunjom. First Vice Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui, who issued a statement in response to Trump’s tweet on June 29 proposing a meeting at Panmunjom, was also spotted at Panmunjom. In contrast, there was no sign of WPK Central Committee Vice Chairman Kim Yong-chol or North Korean Special Representative for US Affairs Kim Hyok-chol, who had been in charge of the negotiations with the US until the second North Korea-US summit in Hanoi. North Korea’s team of negotiators is likely to be organized around Ri and Choi. The US negotiating team will continue to be led by Pompeo and Stephen Biegun, the US State Department’s special representative for North Korea. “President Trump has always had me in charge” of the negotiations, Pompeo said, adding that “Steve will be leading” the working-level talks. The previous day, Trump himself expressed his intention to keep the team under Pompeo and Biegun‘s leadership. Pompeo added that Kim and Trump had agreed to allow each other to select their own negotiating teams. While North Korea has previously used statements by bureau chiefs at the Foreign Ministry, among other officials, to attack Pompeo, its calls for a “player substitution” are expected to subside after the Panmunjom meeting. That said, it’s unclear whether Biegun’s counterpart will be Choe or somebody else. “I don’t know exactly who from the foreign ministry, but it’s likely to be one of a couple people,” Pompeo said, without elaborating further. NK’s “synchronous and phased” approach vs. the US’ “simultaneous and parallel” implementation Pompeo also said that the working-level talks would probably begin within “the next two or three weeks, probably around the middle of the month [. . .] at a place yet to be determined. But the teams will gather and [. . .] start exchanging ideas.” Officials from the two sides are expected to hold talks rotating through locations such as Pyongyang, Washington, and New York. Trump appears set on thoroughly laying the groundwork through working-level talks before holding another summit, apparently prompted by his failure to reach a deal with Kim at Hanoi. The goal of the working-level talks is to draft a plan for implementing the agreements reached during the North Korea-US summit held in Singapore in June 2018: namely, improving bilateral relations, denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula, and building a peace regime. The first issues that will need to be addressed in these talks are coming up with a definition of denuclearization and drawing a general roadmap for getting there. The US recently reconfirmed the “simultaneous and parallel” approach that Biegun made official back in January, while North Korea prefers a “synchronous and phased” approach. The two sides were unable to narrow their differences on this point during their Hanoi summit this past February. The US wants the simultaneous and parallel implementation of the Singapore joint statement, predicated on an all-inclusive deal that includes the end goal of denuclearization; North Korea wants to make a series of gradual deals, in line with the degree of confidence-building, and to trade “action for action.” Start by firmly stating end state or leaving negotiations open-ended? “The fundamental difference between the two sides is whether to begin by hammering down the end state or whether to implement agreements while leaving that open-ended. If North Korea adopts an ambiguous position on this kind of big-picture issue, the US will start demanding a lot of concessions [from North Korea] in the initial phase,” predicted Kim Yeong-jun, an analyst with the Institute for National Security Strategy. According to Kim, North Korea needs to provide some kind of confirmation of the final stage [end state] of the “complete denuclearization” to which it agreed in the Singapore joint statement. The crux of the debate is North Korea’s denuclearization, focusing on the Yongbyon nuclear facility, and the lifting of sanctions on the North to compensate for denuclearization. In Hanoi, North Korea asked the US to trade relief from key sanctions in the area of the public livelihood for the demolition of the Yongbyon nuclear facility. The US argued that Yongbyon alone isn’t enough and proposed a grand bargain in which sanctions would be completely lifted in exchange for the shutdown of the North’s entire nuclear program. In order to reach progress in the negotiations moving forward, therefore, either North Korea must offer something more than the Yongbyon nuclear facilities or the US must offer partial sanctions relief as a reward for the shutdown of Yongbyon. No indications that N. Korea or US have changed their fundamental positions But there still aren’t any indications of concrete changes in North Korea or the US’ positions. During the South Korea-US summit on June 30, Moon and Trump revealed the gap between their positions. Moon said that the complete shutdown of the Yongbyon nuclear complex could be a meaningful starting point for irreversible denuclearization, while Trump said that the complex’s shutdown was just one stage, one that might or might not be important. The US regards the sanctions on North Korea as a bargaining chip that should be held onto as long as possible. Trump also stressed that he’s not in a hurry and that he’s set on reaching a good comprehensive deal. But given the US’ recent indications that it could adopt a flexible stance and North Korea’s seizure of the Panmunjom meeting as a chance to recover from the Hanoi shock, some think that the two sides will be able to find common ground. After meeting with Kim on June 30, Trump said that sanctions will continue while adding that “things can happen” at some point during the negotiations. “Trump didn’t use the term ‘denuclearization’ during the summit. That could be a signal that the US has strategically shifted toward the viewpoint that a more flexible approach is necessary, rather than harping on denuclearization. Progress in the negotiations depends on what kind of concessions Trump and Kim Jong-un will make,” said Ken Gause, director of the Adversary Analytics Program at CNA, an American research and analysis organization, during a conversation with the Hankyoreh. By Hwang Joon-bum, Washington correspondent, and Kim Ji-eun, staff reporter Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]
