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Cho Dong-ho, director of the Institute for National Security Strategy (INSS), talks about North Korea’s demands for the cancellation of the 19-2 Dong Maeng joint military exercise during a North Korea politics briefing in Seoul on July 18. (Lee Je-hun, senior staff writer)
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Institute for National Security Strategy dissects Pyongyang’s recent movements
North Korea’s attempt to effectively tie the initiation of working-level talks with the US to the matter of the 19-2 Dong Maeng combined South Korea-US command post exercise may be based on a complex mixture of aims including buying time, establishing negotiating leverage, and avoiding risks, analysis suggested. In a talk with reporters during a July 18 briefing on the North Korea situation at the Sejong Center in Seoul, the Institute for National Security Strategy (INSS) offered this analysis of remarks made on July 16 by a North Korean Foreign Ministry spokesperson, who declared that it would have an “effect on North Korea-US working-level talks” if the “19-2 Dong Maeng joint military exercise by the US and South Korea becomes a reality.” The INSS identified three possible main reasons for the North Korean Foreign Ministry’s attempts to link the two matters. First, it suggested a strategy of buying time to analyze the US’ new approach (with an initial nuclear freeze) and formulate response measures. Kim Il-gi, director of the INSS’s North Korea research office, explained, “They may have perceived the need for careful and thorough preparations beforehand to avoid repeating the same shock from Hanoi [the venue for the second North Korea-US summit].” Second, it said North Korea could be developing new leverage for negotiations to win concessions from the US. Third, it interpreted the move as a by-the-book response by the new negotiating team to avoid political risks after witnessing the hardships faced by the previous North Korean team following the Hanoi summit’s failure. The institute also noted the possibility that China and Russia’s efforts to ensure North Korea’s regime security could function as factors promoting denuclearization, but added, “We cannot rule out the possibility that North Korea’s recent offensive to halt the South Korea-US combined military exercises may be the result of prior coordination with China within this context.” The institute predicted, “After the replacement of its negotiation team and the lesson of the Hanoi summit failure, North Korea is expected to adhere to an uncompromising, by-the-book stance early on in its [working-level] negotiations [with the US].” “There is a significant possibility that the new negotiating team centering on [First Vice Foreign Minister] Choe Son-hui will have a mindset of risk avoidance after witnessing the punishment of the Hanoi negotiating team for neglecting working-level talks,” it suggested. By Lee Je-hun, senior staff writer Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]
