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US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un shake hands at the Military Demarcation Line (MDL) in Panmunjom on June 30. (Kim Jung-hyo, staff photographer)
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A comprehensive look at the Pyongyang-Washington dynamic
In an Aug. 10 tweet, US President Donald Trump shared that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un had sent him a personal letter. “In a letter to me sent by Kim Jong Un, he stated, very nicely, that he would like to meet and start negotiations as soon as the joint U.S./South Korea joint exercise[s] are over,” he wrote at the time. The joint South Korea-US command post exercises concluded on Aug. 20. Over 10 days have passed, yet no word has come of North Korea-US working-level negotiations starting up. When exactly will the two sides’ denuclearization talks be getting off the ground? Resumption of talks hinges on N. Korea’s decision Aug. 30 marks two full months since the surprise meeting between the North Korean and US leaders at Panmunjom on June 30. Based on current reports from in and around the Trump administration, the question of the North Korea-US working-level negotiations resuming hinges entirely on the response from Pyongyang. During a South Korea visit on Aug. 20–23, US State Department Special Representative for North Korea Stephen Biegun sent a message essentially calling on North Korea to resume the talks as quickly as possible. “We are prepared to engage [in talks] as soon as we hear from our counterparts in North Korea,” he said. The US is indeed reported to be in communication with the North through its liaison channel operating in New York. “Operating” in this case means that the North Korea channel is open for communication whenever North Korea and the US want it. Just before his recent Seoul visit, Biegun reportedly conveyed to Pyongyang that he “could meet” with them – but North Korea gave no response, and no meeting ever transpired. The South Korean government has concluded that the possibility for resuming negotiations is still open, since Pyongyang has not yet issued any statement or other official announcement clearly stating that it will not take part. With Aug. 29 marking the final date of the second meeting of the 14th Supreme People’s Assembly, some are predicting the North could rejoin dialogue now that the major event is over. Seoul is similarly looking forward to seeing North Korea take action in the future, sources said. As of Aug. 29, North Korea had not issued any official response to the US. The South Korean government’s predictions on North Korea joining the working-level negotiations are reportedly based on three standards: a final decision on its negotiation lineup, the establishment of a position on the talks’ agenda, and timing. The administration reportedly believes that North Korea is nearly finished with deciding who will be on its negotiation team and set a policy course focusing on the “security guarantee” issue for the talks’ agenda. In terms of the date for agreeing to negotiations, it is seen as very likely to pick a time when it can maximize its bargaining strength. Seoul is anticipating Pyongyang will come to the table for dialogue once all three of these conditions are met. N. Korea’s working-level negotiation team appears set The South Korean government believes that Kim Myong-gil, a current Foreign Ministry official and former North Korean ambassador to Vietnam who took part in the Six-Party Talks on the nuclear issue, is likely to take over as the North Korean representative and Biegun’s new counterpart for the bilateral denuclearization talks with the US. Seoul reportedly views Kim as a competent figure with a clear but gentle approach could effectively represent the North Korean position. Kim took part in Six-Party Talks between 2006 and 2009 as deputy chief of the North Korean mission to the UN at the time. He is described as a “US expert” who worked at the Foreign Ministry-affiliate Institute for Disarmament and Peace. Talks to begin at late September UN General Assembly meeting? As indicated in the letter from Kim Jong-un shared by Trump, South Korean and US authorities believe the North will send a signal now that the joint exercises have ended on Aug. 20. As of Aug. 30, Seoul was still considering this to be the likely scenario. One major international event that will be taking place in September is the meeting of the 74th UN General Assembly in New York. Both North Korea and the US attend this event each year. Different countries deliver speeches at the meeting, and North Korea has been no exception. To date, the North Korean speeches have mainly been delivered by the Foreign Minister. Some observers are predicting that with North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong-ho coming to New York for the meeting, the working-level negotiations could be resumed as he meets with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. While the foreign press has reported this year that Ri will be delivering a speech before the UN General Assembly, very recent reports also suggest that he will be bowing out, with someone else attending in his stead – raising the question of who that might be. In any case, North Korea is reportedly going through the different procedures needed to deliver a UN General Assembly speech. But the South Korean government maintains that the question of who will be giving the speech will only be answered for sure once the meeting is actually under way and the North Korean attendees have made themselves known. Since there’s no telling who this North Korean official will actually be until they make their appearance, the government cautions against jumping to conclusions. Others think there’s no reason to assume that the North Korea-US working-level negotiations will be linked to the UN General Assembly. According to this viewpoint, there’s no guarantee that the negotiations will necessarily be held in New York on the sidelines of the assembly. That’s supported by the fact that North Korea and the US have held negotiations at Panmunjom and during summits in Singapore and Hanoi. Last year, Biegun met with North Korean Vice Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui in Stockholm, Sweden. Furthermore, New York has rarely appeared on the list of possible locations for talks. For these and other such reasons, the South Korean government reportedly believes that the lack of a meeting between Pompeo and Ri Yong-ho during the UN General Assembly doesn’t mean the two countries’ working-level negotiations are off. But since there’s still a month before the UN General Assembly, an international event that both North Korea and the US will attend, it’s possible that the two countries will treat it as an opportunity to restart their negotiations. There are three scenarios for what might happen. In the first scenario, Pompeo and Ri meet at the assembly, leading immediately to working-level negotiations between the two countries. Second, Pompeo and Ri meet during the assembly, shake hands, and announce that working-level talks will be held soon. Finally, it’s also possible that the two diplomats won’t meet and that no concrete agreement will be reached between the two sides. The working-level negotiations will depend on reaching an agreement on the concept of denuclearization One of the reasons that North Korea and the US failed to produce an agreement in their second summit in Hanoi this past February was because they couldn’t even agree on how to define the concept of denuclearization. Reports say that the Hanoi negotiations broke down because the US wanted the North to specify the end state of denuclearization, outline a roadmap for getting there, and agree to a nuclear freeze, but North Korea refused to do that, instead demanding that sanctions be lifted in exchange for shutting down its Yongbyon nuclear complex. Six months down the line, have there been any changes in the two sides’ positions? At the moment, the US’ stance appears to be pretty much the same. That is to say, the US still wants the North to define the concept of denuclearization, draw a roadmap, and freeze its nuclear programs before taking any further steps. One item has been added to this list, however: the “flexible approach” stressed by Biegun stressed. While the specifics of this “flexible approach” haven’t been disclosed, sources say it basically has to do with the approach the US takes in the denuclearization talks. Trump has reportedly left the North Korean nuclear talks in Biegun’s hands, giving him considerable latitude to exercise his authority. Biegun’s flexible approach is likely to become apparent after the negotiations actually begin. That is, if North Korea demonstrates a forward-looking position in the negotiations, Biegun can use that to persuade the US to offer a reward that could satisfy the North. But Seoul reportedly believes that the longer Pyongyang delays and refuses to resume talks, the less room that Biegun and other American advocates of dialogue will have to maneuver. By Noh Ji-won, staff reporter Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]
