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North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, and South Korean President Moon Jae-in in Panmunjom on June 30. (Blue House photo pool)
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Diving into the workings behind Washington and Pyongyang’s negotiations
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, who has been pondering the conditions and timing of negotiations with the US, has finally suggested that they be held in late September, at a mutually acceptable time and place. This proposal comes 71 days after he reached a verbal agreement with US President Donald Trump during their meeting at Panmunjom on June 30 to resume working-level talks. Shortly after North Korea’s proposal, Trump responded positively, noting that “having meetings is a good thing.” These developments mean that the two sides could hold working-level talks this month. Trump and Kim are expected to take action as they maneuver toward a third summit and try to arrange a major compromise before the end of the year. There are hopeful predictions that working-level negotiations between the two sides will open a “window of opportunity” for inter-Korean relations, which ground to a halt after the second North Korea-US summit, held in Hanoi, ended without a deal. Seoul and Pyongyang have been deadlocked ever since. North Korea’s dramatic volte-face occurred late on the evening of Sept. 9. “We have willingness to sit with the US side for comprehensive discussions of the issues we have so far taken up at the time and place to be agreed late in September,” North Korean First Vice Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui said in a statement released on Monday morning (US time). “I gave heed to the recent repeated remarks of high-ranking US officials leading the negotiations with the DPRK [North Korea] that they are ready for the DPRK-US working negotiation,” Choe said. Importance of US’ “new calculations” in upcoming negotiations Choe also brought up the fact that Kim had called for the US to make “new calculations” in a policy speech at the Supreme People’s Assembly on Apr. 12. “I think the US has since had enough time to find the calculation method that it can share with us,” Choe said, in a remark that was at once hopeful and intimidating. It’s widely thought that Kim’s decision to resume negotiations is informed by criticism that he meant to publicly humiliate Trump, who announced following a meeting in Panmunjom on June 30 that working-level talks would resume within two or three weeks, as well as by concerns that Kim’s “relationship of trust” with Trump might be seriously harmed. During an interview with ABC on Sept. 6, Pompeo put pressure on Kim, remarking that Trump would be very disappointed if Kim didn’t return to the negotiating table. But even after resolving to resume working-level talks, Kim still seems worried that the US might not have budged as much as he’d hoped. That’s evidenced by the bravado that concludes Choe’s statement: “If the US side fingers again the worn-out scenario which has nothing to do with the new calculation method at the DPRK-US working negotiation to be held with so much effort, the DPRK-US dealings may come to an end.” North Korea’s launch of two unidentified projectiles from South Pyongan Province toward the East Sea early in the morning on Sept. 10, a few hours after the statement was published, appears to be a show of force underlining that this threat was not just empty words. The projectile launch also appears aimed at backing up Pyongyang’s claim that its development and test launches of new short-range ballistic missiles and multiple rocket launchers (10 such test have been carried out since the Hanoi summit) are routine defensive measures designed to compensate for its inferior spending on conventional weaponry. Trump has signaled that he won’t take issue with the North’s launches of short-range projectiles, dismissing them as something that many other countries do. Roadmap for denuclearization vs. Pyongyang’s regime security guarantee We’re already seeing the outlines of the major issues to be tackled in the working-level negotiations. The US’ primary demands are a freeze on nuclear activity, a roadmap to denuclearization, and a definition of its “end state,” or ultimate goal. Along with easing or lifting sanctions, which was the North’s main demand during the Hanoi summit, Pyongyang is also expected to put security on the agenda. In recent weeks, the US has made overture about rewarding North Korea for progress on denuclearization. On Aug. 27, Trump described North Korea as a country with incredible potential and unexpectedly brought up the idea of traveling to North Korea via the railroad. Trump appears to have been thinking of a proposal made by South Korean President Moon Jae-in during a phone call on Feb. 19, shortly before the Hanoi summit. During that call, Moon had asked Trump to let South Korea play a major role in providing incentives for denuclearization, mentioning that Seoul was prepared to connect roads and railways and to run economic cooperation projects with the North. The US has also addressed North Korea’s security concerns, with Trump remarking on Sept. 4 that the US doesn’t seek regime change in North Korea and US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo saying on Sept. 6 that all sovereign countries have the right to defend themselves. Also on Sept. 6, Stephen Biegun, the US State Department’s special representative for North Korea, brought up the possibility of a strategic review of US Forces Korea, presuming North Korea’s complete denuclearization. That review could include reducing the number of troops on the peninsula or adjusting their mission. Success of working-level talks depends on changes in Washington’s attitude “The success of the working-level talks depends on how much the American attitude has changed. The key here isn’t making glib claims about security or the economy, but giving North Korea something tangible,” said a venerable figure in South Korea’s foreign policy and security establishment. A former senior government official said that one way the US could demonstrate its flexibility is by updating its stance on easing or lifting sanctions. Second, the official said, the US could stop demanding that the North be the first to take action on denuclearization and instead agree to the principle of simultaneous action by both sides. How quickly can Moon recover his role as mediator? In order for working-level talks and a third summit between the US and North Korea to lead to a grand bargain, there’s a critical need for a capable and trusted mediator and facilitator. The two countries must reduce the risk that their 70 years of hostile relations and lack of any experience with making such a sweeping deal could provoke mutual misunderstandings and torpedo the negotiations. “Moon really shone as a mediator and facilitator last year, but his role has been severely curtailed since the Hanoi summit. The question of how quickly he can return to that role is another important variable in the progress of the North Korea-US negotiations. Moon needs to restore his influence on Pyongyang by making a bold decision that can overcome the chill in inter-Korean relations,” the former official said. “We’ll be looking into ways to play a greater role so that the North Korea-US working-level negotiations can lead to a third summit and speed up the Korean Peninsula Peace Process,” said a high-ranking official in the government. “Moon’s help is sure to be an essential element in Kim holding strategic negotiations with Trump,” another senior official said, adding that working-level talks between North Korea and the US could also open a “window of opportunity” for inter-Korean relations. By Lee Je-hun, senior staff writer Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]
