 |
|
US President Donald Trump (right) and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson at the UN headquarters in New York on Sept. 24. (AFP)
|
Political scandal may detract White House’s focus on foreign policy
Amid signs of the pending resumption of working-level negotiations on the North Korean nuclear issue between Pyongyang and Washington, observers are waiting to see if the political chaos in the US stirred up by the threat of impeachment looming over President Donald Trump impacts Washington’s talks with North Korea. While the situation appears unlikely to deal a direct blow by suspending negotiations, it does appear poised to have some influence on decisions regarding future policy priorities and the tempo and outcome of the talks. To begin with, it’s easy to predict that the Trump administration will channel more of its political resources into responding to the impeachment onslaught from Democrats than foreign policy. This is certain to translate into weakening the White House’s role as a control tower on the North Korean nuclear issue and other matters of foreign policy. Consequently, the White House may also take longer to make policy judgments and decisions. “At the very least, we can expect this to slow the rate of things when it comes to North Korea-US negotiations,” said Kim Jung, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies. “If the plan is to have a third North Korea-US summit within the year, that too could end up being delayed,” Kim predicted. In the short term, this could increase the Trump administration’s motivation to maintain the status quo and the current absence of nuclear and long-range missile testing rather than seeking progress in talks with Pyongyang. Second, the Trump administration could apply a rigorous yardstick to the outcome of its North Korea negotiations. A number of analyses suggested that the collapse of the North Korea-US summit in Hanoi last February was influenced by major coverage of hearings involving Michael Cohen, a former personal attorney of Trump’s who ended up betraying him. The suggestion is that Trump was concerned about domestic political fallout and accusations of making “concessions” to Pyongyang. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who has become the de facto “control tower” for foreign policy since the replacement of John Bolton as White House National Security Advisor, is also seen as a strong contender to become a future Republican Party presidential nominee – and is not expected to attempt to persuade Trump to reach any agreements that might prove a political liability to himself down the road. Democrats likely to wage strategic war instead of focusing on agreement with N. Korea The onslaught against Trump from Democrats is also informed by an emotional sense of distaste with his summits with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. The Democrats appear likely to wage their battle from a strategic perspective rather than focusing their judgment on the content of the agreement. All of these factors could make the Trump administration hesitant to reach an agreement with Pyongyang – meaning that the blinking contest between the two sides could drag out longer than expected. Third, Pyongyang’s own calculations could have an impact. While Trump may not actually end up being impeached, North Korea is less likely to actively pursue talks or reach a major agreement if his chances of reelection drop. Kim Jung predicted, “As the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s reelection rises, we could see a more skeptical attitude from Kim Jong-un in terms of things like whether he reaches an agreement with the Trump administration and how much of an agreement it is.” Conversely, the emergence of further allegations that former Vice President Joseph Biden pressured Ukraine on issues involving his son have some predicting that Trump could speed up the talks with North Korea as a way of turning the situation around as the Democrat’s impeachment push loses traction. With Trump having already proven himself proficient at “plastering over” issues, he may also opt to use the North Korean nuclear issue and other foreign affairs to deflect some of the controversy at home. By Lee Yong-in and Noh Ji-won, staff reporters Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]
