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The Pukguksong-3 previously made a brief appearance in diagram form alongside the Hwasong-13 ICBM when North Korean leader Kim Jong-un – then chairman of the Workers’ Party of Korea – visited the Chemical Material Institute of the Academy of Defence Sciences in August 2017.
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Analysts debate whether Pyongyang has developed upgraded version of Pukguksong missile
North Korea’s latest launch of a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) – believed to be from the Pukguksong class – was its first since August 2016. At that time, it launched a Pukguksong-1 from a 2,000-ton Sinpo-class submarine. In February and May 2017, it test-launched the Pukguksong-2, a version modified for land-based use. Both missiles were estimated to have traveled around 500km with altitudes in the 500–600km range. The latest missile had a similar range, although its altitude was at least 300km higher.
“Had the latest missile been launched at a normal angle, it would have traveled around 1,500–2,000km,” estimated Kim Dong-yub, a professor at Kyungnam University.
“The latest launch appears to have been a Pukguksong-3, an improved version of the Pukguksong-1,” Kim said.
The Pukguksong-3 previously made a brief appearance in diagram form alongside the Hwasong-13 ICBM when North Korean leader Kim Jong-un – then chairman of the Workers’ Party of Korea – visited the Chemical Material Institute of the Academy of Defence Sciences in August 2017. A diagram hanging on the wall at the time showed the title “Pukguksong-3 Underwater Strategic Ballistic Missile,” leading to speculation that North Korea was developing an improved version of its Pukguksong-1. If the latest missile was indeed the Pukguksong-3, it could be seen as signing that North Korea’s development has advanced to a successful stage.
Like the previous models, the Pukguksong-3 is believed to be a multi-stage missile (two stages) using solid fuel. Japan’s initial announcement that it had “detected a second missile” shortly after the launch hinted at a possible stage separation in midair. A “cold launch” method was reportedly used, in which the missile is forced up to the surface with high pressure before ignition and launch.
It remains uncertain whether the missile was actually launched from a submarine. While some have raised the possibility that it was launched from a new 3,000-ton submarine inspected by last July, other observers have suggested it may have been an ejection test by a marine barge or underwater launch platform. An ejection test is conducted prior to an actual missile test launch from a submarine to examine whether the projectile is being ejected at the proper speed and angle. According to CNN, the US government determined that the missile was launched from an underwater platform. A US government official was quoted as saying the missile that day was not fired from a submarine but had been designed as an SLBM.
By Yoo Kang-moon, senior staff writer
Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]
