Controversy regarding N. Korea’s ability to launch an ICBM from a TEL

North Korea launches its Hwasong-15 ICBM in November 2017. (Hankyoreh archives)

Pyongyang’s launch capacity directly affects preparations from S. Korea and US

North Korea launches its Hwasong-15 ICBM in November 2017. (Hankyoreh archives)

Is North Korea capable of launching an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) from a transporter erector launcher (TEL)? Attention is focusing on its TEL launch capabilities amid a controversy over recent remarks by Blue House National Security Office Director Chung Eui-yong, who said, “We believe North Korean ICBMs cannot be launched from a TEL.” An assessment of North Korea’s TEL launch capabilities would have direct bearing on South Korea and the US’ readiness posture.

Speaking at a National Assembly Intelligence Committee parliamentary audit at the Ministry of National Defense (MND) complex on Nov. 6, Kim Young-hwan, chief of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), was reported by the MND as saying that “North Korea is not capable of launching an ICBM from a TEL, which is capable of transporting, erecting, and launching [missiles].” With his remarks, Kim was backtracking from previous comments during an Intelligence Committee audit on Oct. 8, where he said that North Korean ICBMs had “now advanced to the point where they can be launched from a TEL.” The reversal may be seen as reflecting an awareness that the military’s conclusion on North Korea’s TEL launch capabilities might be taken as different from what Chung had stated.

The term “transporter erector launcher” typically refers to a weapon system combining transporter, erector, and launcher functions. When North Korea launched its Hwasong-14 ICBM on July 4 and 28, 2017, and its Hwasong-15 on Nov. 19 of that year, the missiles in question were loaded onto a TEL and taken to a launch site where a separately installed launcher was used. In other words, the transporting and erecting took place on the TEL, but not the launch. Indeed, the National Intelligence Service (NIS) also reported to the Intelligence Committee that North Korea’s TEL “carried the ICBMs to the launch site and then left the scene after the missiles were positioned on a fixed stand.”

Experts noted that the launch of an ICBM directly from a TEL poses difficult technical issues. Kim Seong-geol, director of the security situation analysis center at the Korea Research Institute for National Strategy (KRINS), said, “Because ICBMs are much larger in weight and output terms than short- or intermediate-range missiles, launching them directly from a TEL would require substantial technical capabilities.” Another constraint on North Korea launching an ICBM directly from a TEL is the need for liquid fuel. Kim reported that North Korea “attempted to launch an ICBM from a TEL but was not able to after issues arose.” While he did not specify what the “issues” were, they were believed to concern the technical issues related to a direct TEL launch.

ICBM launch possible even after Tongchang Village shutdown of 2018

At the same time, the very fact that North Korea is operating the TEL as a means of launching ICBMs is noteworthy. While it dismantled its missile test site and launch pad at Tongchang Village in July 2018, it is capable of transporting an ICBM to a desired location and launching it at any time if its denuclearization talks with the US fall through. The possibility that it has improved its TEL capabilities in the meantime cannot be ruled out either. Kim Dong-yub, a professor at Kyungnam University, said, “The key thing here is not whether they are capable of launching an ICBM directly from a TEL; it’s that they are capable of launching an ICBM even after the dismantling of the Tongchang Village launch site.”

By Yoo Kang-moon, senior staff writer

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